Examining the Wild One-Win Prediction

A bit more realistic record to many might be 5-12, barely over the projected 4.5-win total on BetMGM. If that's more your speed, you'll appreciate SI's Conor Orr and his record predictions for 2026. 

Both win totals have been hit by the Dolphins before, but under very different circumstances from the 2026 iteration of Miami, besides a unique coincidence with all three head coaches.

No Love From USA Today

Davis predicted that the Dolphins will end the season with a record of 1-16. That's the worst record on Davis' list, with Arizona barely edging them out with two wins.

It's worth noting that Davis did not specify which game the Dolphins will win. Considering he gave the New York Jets a 3-14 record and they will face Miami twice, perhaps the other win will come against them.

The reasoning is simple: it's not a diss on Jon-Eric Sullivan or Jeff Hafley, but an inexperienced roster with concerns regarding the pass offense and pass defense. On top of that, the Dolphins have the toughest schedule in the AFC by 2025 opponent win percentage.

This Would Be Really Bad History

Predicting that a team will go 1-16 is bold because it hasn't happened yet. In the 17-game era, the closest team to reach that milestone is the 2024 Carolina Panthers, who went 2-15. The last team to win a single game was the 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars, who infamously won their first game before losing the next 15.

Of course, Miami has had a single-win season before. In 2007, led by first-year (and only year) head coach Cam Cameron, the Dolphins were on the verge of going winless. It seemed likely until Week 15, when Cleo Lemon hit Greg Camarillo on a 64-yard TD pass in overtime to beat Baltimore.

There aren't many similarities between then and now. Both teams are led by a first-year head coach, but under different circumstances, with their previous leaders either "retiring" (Nick Saban) or being fired (Mike McDaniel).

The 2007 defense gave up the fourth-fewest yards by opponents that season (3019). The offense was mediocre, but it prioritized passing. They attempted 389 rushing plays, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. That certainly looks like a complete 180 to this year's emphasis on the ground game.

Do the Dolphins currently have a future Pro Football Hall of Fame member as they did in 2007 with Jason Taylor? Probably not, but the 2026 Dolphins might have more talent at key positions, including quarterback (Malik Willis), running back (De'Von Achane), offensive line (Aaron Brewer), and defensive line (Zach Sieler).

A Tad More Realistic

On the other end, Orr believes Miami will go 5-12, with wins over San Francisco, Cincinnati, at home against New England and the New York Jets, and Green Bay. Orr predicts Las Vegas and Cleveland will finish with the same record, and only the Jets and Arizona will finish with less wins.

What makes 5-12 way more convincing than 1-16 is that Orr factored in that the NFL can be unpredictable. Sometimes, clearly worse teams can take down higher-quality opponents on the right day thanks to the right circumstances.

Orr noted that San Francisco could be suffering jet lag as the 49ers be returning from a matchup in Australia the week prior. South Florida's heat and humidity in October can be the difference-maker against Cincinnati. Hafley and Willis can get revenge on their former team. And the Jets can be ... the Jets.

Miami has two seasons with five wins: 2019 and 1968. It's hard to compare this team to the one from 58 years ago, and 2019 has very few similarities. They had a first-year head coach: Brian Flores. There are some positions from each team that are slightly better or worse than the other. 

However, 2019 featured an offense that almost rejected the running game. Their season-total 349 rush attempts and 1,156 rushing yards were both last in the NFL.

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