Explaining why the Bucs need the Saints to avoid a loss in order to help Tampa Bay make the playoffs

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers sure picked a helluva time to lose control of its playoff destiny.

It waited all the way until Week 18 to lose its grip on the NFC South thanks to an awful loss to the Miami Dolphins and an upset win from the Atlanta Falcons in Week 17. Those two developments put the Carolina Panthers at the front of the pack until the Bucs avenged their Week 16 loss with a two-point victory on Saturday.

Now, the Buccaneers are back atop the NFCS, but will only remain there under one condition: The New Orleans Saints avoid a loss to the Falcons on Sunday.

A Saints win or tie puts the Bucs in the playoffs, but a Falcons win puts the Panthers into the playoffs. This is due to the NFL's three-way tiebreaker procedure, which kicks in after a Falcons win.

Therefore, let's explain how it all breaks down from the NFL's point of view.

Bucs, Panthers, and Falcons would all finish 8-9 with a Saints loss

The tiebreaker structure is different when it comes to teams in the same division and teams in the same conference. The same goes for divisional teams involved in a three-way tie.

If the Bucs, Panthers, and Falcons all finish 8-9, then the first tiebreaker is the head-to-head record between all three teams. So, the Bucs are 2-2 since they split with both teams, while the Panthers are 3-1 and Falcons are 1-3. In this case, the Panthers would win the tiebreaker and win the NFCS, along with the NFC's final playoff spot.

The Panthers swept the Falcons during the regular season and that's what gives them the edge. If all three teams were tied at 2-2, then you'd have to start going down the list of subsequent alternate tiebreakers until a victor emerges.

Bucs have the edge in common opponents over Panthers

Now, if the Saints tie or win, it'll prevent the Falcons from finishing 8-9, which puts the focus back on the Bucs and Panthers. The Falcons will no longer be in the picture.

So it becomes a two-way tie and that reverts back to the typical tiebreakers involved with divisional teams. Since the Bucs and Panthers split and respectively finished 3-3 in the division, it comes down to the third tiebreaker, which is record in common games.

This is where you take the results from each game played that features the same opponent. The Buccaneers and Panthers played 12 such matchups – Tampa Bay's 6-6 record barely out-edged Carolina's 5-7 record against the Saints, Falcons, AFC East, and NFC West.

It's all laid out in front of us. Let's get the popcorn ready, sit back, and enjoy the show.

This story was originally published by A to Z Sports on Jan 4, 2026, where it first appeared in the NFL section. Add A to Z Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.