Exploring George Pickens' path to Rookie of the Year

In the span of a few weeks, George Pickens went from the No. 52 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft to one of the top rookie breakout possibilities and an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. This, all before playing a regular season game. 

Heading into Week 2 of the preseason, he is a popular pick to win the award by experts and Steelers fans alike. So, what would it take for the 21-year-old wide receiver to bring home the hardware?

The last wide receiver to win OROY was just a season ago when Ja’Marr Chase had an incredible year for the Cincinnati Bengals. Chase played all 17 games, which is not a certainty for Pickens, who missed much of his collegiate career at Georgia to a torn ACL in his right knee. 

In those 17 games, Chase put up 81 receptions, 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns on 128 targets. Prior to Chase, Odell Beckham Jr. won the award in 2014 with a similar season: 91 catches, 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns on 130 targets. 

Those are the two modern examples of wide receivers winning OROY. Percy Harvin did it in 2009, but only had 790 yards on 60 catches as he was more of a hybrid offensive weapon for that Minnesota team. 

The recipe for an OROY winner at wideout is freakish talent and about 130 targets. The first part, Pickens has covered. Diontae Johnson confirmed that to reporters at training camp, "he's a freak, that's what he is," Johnson reiterated, "he's a special talent."

The second part of that equation however, could be tough to come by in an offense that had Diontae Johnson see 169 targets in 2021. That number is inflated because of Ben Roethlisberger's diminished ability at the end of his career and propensity to throw short passes. Yet, Johnson will likely want to see a similar number of targets after signing a 2-year $36 million contract this offseason. Not to mention, Chase Claypool saw 105 targets, Najee Harris 94, and Pat Freiermuth 79. 

The passing volume will almost certainly drop in the transition from Roethlisberger to Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett, but the offense does have 163 vacated targets from a year ago with the departures of James Washington, Ray-Ray McCloud and Juju Smith-Schuster. Smith-Schuster was the last Steeler to have a season meeting the level of Chase and Beckham Jr. 's rookie seasons. 

In 2018, Smith-Schuster’s sophomore campaign, he racked up 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns on 111 catches. He saw 166 targets from a pre-elbow injury Big Ben that season.

If Pickens is to live up to the preseason hype and have a shot at Offensive Rookie of the Year, then he will have to receive almost all of the 163 vacated targets. He will likely have to cut into the market share of Claypool or Johnson as outside receivers and he must rely on Trubisky to get him the ball, at least in the early part of the season. 

The door for a non-quarterback to win the award is open with Pickett being the only first-round QB and likely starting the season on the sidelines. The question is can Pickens outplay the 10 receivers selected ahead of him in the draft. The flashes he showed a week ago against Seattle as well as throughout training camp have Pittsburgh thinking that he can.