Explosive but Inefficient: The Travis Etienne Conundrum

When the Jaguars selected Etienne in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft - the same draft they selected his college teammate, Trevor Lawrence, first overall - it felt like the offense was being in Clemson's image. The two had chemistry, and Etienne brought a versatile, game-breaking skill set. Even after missing his entire rookie season with a Lisfranc injury, he came back in 2022 and posted over 1,100 yards rushing and five touchdowns, showing flashes of why the team chose him in the first round.

There were games where he looked like a future star: 156 yards against Denver in London, back-to-back 100+ yard games down the stretch, and a playoff-saving run against the Chargers to ice the game. Etienne wasn't just bouncing back, he was breaking out.

Despite the excitement, Etienne's overall efficiency has never caught up to his potential. In 2023 and 2024, his yards per carry hovered closer to 3.8 than the elite 5.0 mark many top-tier backs achieve. He remained a threat in open space, but too often, those explosive plays masked an underlying problem: inconsistency.

According to league-wide advanced metrics, Etienne ranked in the bottom third of starting running backs in both Success Rate and EPA per rush in 2024. Over 40% of his carries went for two yards or fewer, a sign that he wasn't consistently putting the offense in manageable down-and-distance situations. 

Even more concerning: in short-yardage situations, he struggled mightily. Whether on third-and-one or inside the five-yard line, Etienne rarely moved the pile. He's just not a power runner, and the Jaguars' red-zone offense suffered because of it.

Etienne was also solid as a dual-threat weapon, but his receiving game hasn't developed into what many expected. His targets have dropped, and when the ball has come his way, he has struggled with drops and inefficiency after the catch. 

Part of the issue lies in his style. Etienne is a horizontal runner, he often looks to bounce runs outside and for the home run. While that works occasionally, it also leads to negative plays, especially behind a mediocre offensive line that doesn't consistently create a push. 

Compare him to other backs behind similar lines, like Chase Brown in Cincinnati or Joe Mixon in Houston, and the contrast is clear. Those backs often manufacture yards after contact and wear down defenses. Etienne too often goes down on first contact or gets strung out to the sideline for minimal gain.

With new head coach Liam Coen stepping in, the Jaguars are likely to shift toward a more traditional, downhill scheme-think zone and gap concepts that require decisive, one-cut runners who get upfield quickly. That's not Etienne's game.

Coen's offenses have thrived with backs who hit the hole hard, protected the quarterback on third downs, and can be a consistent threat in the passing game. Etienne has struggled in pass protection, which limits his third-down value in a scheme that places a premium on protecting the passer. 

With the recent additions of Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen Jr. in the NFL draft, Etienne could find himself phased out of the backfield rotation. And with his rookie deal nearing its end, that's a problem. 

It's not that Etienne can't contribute. He can. He just might be better suited for a situational role - think Tony Pollard before he became the starter in Dallas or Raheem Mostert in Miami. The problem is, situational players don't get second contracts from rebuilding teams; they get replaced. 

Travis Etienne's highlight runs will always get replayed on Sundays, but the Jaguars don't need just highlights-they need consistency and reliability. With the always average at best and consistently below average Trevor Lawrence entering his make-or-break window under the new regime, Jacksonville can't afford to hang onto a back who, much like their quarterback, doesn't elevate the offense consistently. 

The Jaguars drafted Etienne to be the future once upon a time. But the future is now and a brand new future has been recently drafted in Tuten and Allen. It is time to move on to a future without Etienne.