Fabulous or flop? Gauging the chances of success for each first-round QB

All three quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft — Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson — were named Week 1 starters. 

Whether they are successful as rookies can depend on factors out of their control. In Indianapolis, for example, Anthony Richardson could struggle without running back Jonathan Taylor, who's sitting out because of a contract dispute and an injury concern. Taylor is one of the league's top RBs, and his backups are middling.

Let's gauge the chance of each rookie having a successful 2023, with emphasis on his team's offensive line, skill-position players and schedule.

Bryce Young | Carolina Panthers

Offensive line: Backups iffy. There's perhaps no line under more pressure than Carolina's. At 5-foot-10 and 204 pounds, Young is one of the smaller NFL QBs. Much has been made about how much physical punishment he can take. The unit returns four of five starters from a 2022 line that allowed the 11th-fewest sacks in the NFL in 2022 but, per Panthers reporter Darin Gantt, has three rookies (two undrafted) as backup options. 

Skill positions: Solid. GM Scott Fitterer ensured his franchise quarterback will have weapons. In the second round of the draft, the Panthers chose Ole Miss wideout Jonathan Mingo, and they also were busy in the free-agent market, signing veterans Adam Thielen (WR), Miles Sanders (RB) and Hayden Hurst (TE). All are reliable. If recovered from a groin injury, Sanders — who rushed for 1,269 yards for the Eagles in 2022 — could take a huge burden off Young. WRs DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault Jr. will aim to make an impact in the passing game as well. 

Schedule: Favorable. The schedule sets up well early. Carolina opens in Atlanta against a Falcons team that finished with the second-fewest sacks in 2022, which should allow the offensive line to settle in before facing New Orleans and elite pass-rusher Cam Jordan in Week 2. With six games in a weak NFC South and games against other rookie-led teams in Houston and Indianapolis in back-to-back weeks, Carolina could achieve its first winning season since 2017 and return to the playoffs. 

Outlook: Promising. Young is one of the few top overall picks in league history with an immediate chance at the postseason. As Yardbarker's Daniel Kelly observed, Young's outstanding pocket awareness should help keep him on his feet. If his line gels, Young should be a Rookie of the Year contender.  

C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans

Offensive line: Uh-oh. The line begins the season banged up. 2022 first-round pick Kenyon Green, a guard, landed on injured reserve (shoulder) following the final preseason game. Presumptive center Juice Scruggs (leg) is also hurt. Meanwhile, tackle Tytus Howard had a cast on his hand at practice last Friday. The lone bright spot at the moment is Laremy Tunsil, one of the NFL's best tackles.  

Skill positions: Trouble ahead. Stroud has competent running backs in Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary, but he'll have little help at wide receiver. Robert Woods is the only WR or tight end on the roster to post more than 1,000 yards receiving in a season, and that came in 2019. Former Cowboy Dalton Schultz should be a solid option at tight end after serving as Dak Prescott's safety valve since 2020. Expect Stroud to turn to him early and often. 

Schedule: There's hope. Like Young, Stroud will also benefit from a favorable schedule. Six of Houston's opponents finished in the top 10 in passing yards allowed per game last year, with division-rival Tennessee allowing the most. A chance to play against soft secondaries, starting with Baltimore in Week 1, should help Stroud and his shallow receiving corps ease in to the season. 

Outlook: Chance for early success. At Ohio State, Stroud demonstrated that with elite talent on offense, he could lead a team to success. He won't have that in Houston, but the Texans should be a little better than last season, when they finished 3-13-1.  

Anthony Richardson | Indianapolis Colts

Offensive line: Should be better. Only two players started all 17 games (Quenton Nelson and Ryan Kelly) last season on a line that allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL in 2022. The good news is the unit stabilized in the second half of the season, with the same five players starting every game from Week 9 on, per Colts.com writer JJ Stankevitz, and those same five are back and expected to start this season. 

Skill positions: Trouble ahead. The glaring issue is the contract drama surrounding Taylor. After failing to find a trade partner, the Colts placed him on the PUP list. He won't play for at least four weeks. The Colts are hopeful his backup, Zack Moss (who's dealing with an arm issue), will lead the running back room. Michael Pittman Jr., who has one 1,000-yard receiving season in three years in the NFL, is the best WR on the roster. Third-round pick Josh Downs is an exciting prospect, but there are few other weapons to help carry the rawest passer taken in the first round of the draft. 

Schedule: Favorable. The AFC South may be the second-worst division in the NFL, next to the NFC South. That should give Richardson and the Colts hope. Circle Week 2, when when Richardson plays Stroud and the Texans. 

Outlook: Bleak. There's no star power on offense. Richardson flashed elite talent — especially with his arm — during the preseason, but he's coming off a college career in which he had a 54.7 completion percentage. The Colts should challenge the Cardinals for worst record in the NFL. If Richardson flops, Indianapolis at least has veteran backup Gardner Minshew, a competent QB.