FalconsSI Staff Unanimous in Falcons vs. Chiefs Predictions

The Atlanta Falcons are looking to get back on track in Week 10, but they face a difficult challenge with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs coming to Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Atlanta has lost four of its last five games and is coming off a disappointing performance against the Cincinnati Bengals in Madrid. Now, the Falcons will have to find a way to slow down another talented quarterback while dealing with significant changes to their own roster.

Kansas City will enter the matchup without running back Kenneth Walker III, which could make things more manageable for Atlanta’s struggling defense. However, Mahomes and Travis Kelce remain major threats, and the Chiefs have plenty of weapons to exploit the Falcons’ defensive weaknesses and deficiencies.

How will the game play out? The FalconsSI staff delivers its weekly predictions.

Scott Kennedy (4-5)

The Falcons have had some frustrating games this year, suffering through two weeks of Cooper Rush and a monsoon in Tampa, for example. But last week in Madrid was different. The Cincinnati Bengals simply showed the Falcons aren't good enough this year.

Their defense has been patched together with duct tape and one-year contracts, and it simply couldn't hold up against Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. General manager Ian Cunningham saw the same thing we did, and rather than deluding himself into thinking 3-6 in a weak NFC South was good enough, he sold at the trade deadline.

Now Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce come to Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and the Falcons are without All-Pro safety Jessie Bates III after trading him to the Jaguars. Mahomes and the Chiefs aren't as explosive as the Bengals, but, well, they're still Mahomes and the Chiefs... and they're better on defense.

We'll see if Michael Penix Jr. and the offense can play well enough to take another step towards feeling good about Penix in 2027, but the Falcons are staring 3-7 in the face.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Falcons 17

Gerald Thomas, III (4-5)

The notion of the Falcons playing up to the competition is fading away. 

Plus, there’s a belief that Atlanta is now playing for draft positioning instead of ending its playoff drought.

The Chiefs present too many issues for the Falcons. We all know what Patrick Mahomes can do in the passing attack. And we all watched the Atlanta secondary struggle with Bengals playmakers in Madrid. With Kenneth Walker III out, that may soften the blow against the Falcons’ dwindling run defense.

Offensively, Atlanta is looking pretty “eh.” Michael Penix Jr. has gotten off of his heater and must prove himself as the franchise quarterback against one of the top pass defenses in the league. Additionally, Kansas City is top-10 at stopping the run and will likely stack boxes to stonewall Bijan Robinson as the Falcons deal with the key loss of powerback Brian Robinson Jr. 

Atlanta is looking at a third consecutive loss on the road to the 2027 NFL Draft.

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Falcons 21

Garrett Chapman (4-5)

The Falcons have lost four of their last five, and the road to snapping that skid will run through the Kansas City Chiefs. The perennial contenders will be without Kenneth Walker, but Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are still willing and able to run wild on a reeling Falcons defense that just moved Jessie Bates. 

On offense, Corey Levin will be taking over at center, and he'll have a pretty difficult challenge opposite him. 

This should be a tight game, but I'm not sure the Falcons can overcome this team opposite them right now. 

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Falcons 17

Darius Hayes (4-5)

Expects a closer game with Walker sidelined, but Mahomes will ultimately make the difference.

Atlanta’s defense has continued to struggle, and the departure of Bates doesn’t provide much confidence that things will improve against Kansas City’s passing attack.

The Falcons also face questions offensively with a new starting center stepping into the lineup midway through the season. That transition could create additional problems against a talented Chiefs defense.

Atlanta remains competitive, but Kansas City will pull away late to secure the victory.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Falcons 16

Jerry Jones, Falcons Podcast, (4-5)

Despite being only a half game back from first place in the division, it really seems like the clock is ticking on the Falcons’ season. The performances in recent weeks and the trades the Falcons made at the deadline make this game feel like a “crap or get off the pot” moment for this team.

There is hope, though. The Chiefs are good, but the Falcons have beaten better teams this year (which sounds crazy given they’ve only won three games). The blueprint for beating the Chiefs is pretty straightforward: stop the run.

The issue is, the Falcons have struggled to do that, especially against inside runs, and the Chiefs are an inside-running team. If they can pull it off, the Falcons’ pass defense matches up well against the Chiefs’ passing offense on paper (even without Jessie Bates).

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs’ defense has been solid, but I think they have a real weakness in the secondary with the injury to their rookie Mansoor Delane. To exploit it, though, the Falcons will need to get the run game going. Their passing offense has been pretty ineffective when the ground game stalls.

This is a game the Falcons can win... but whether they will is a different story.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Falcons 16