Fantasy Football Stock Market-Dynasty Edition

After a long wait, the fantasy football community has been able to rejoice, as TreVeyon Henderson has finally arrived. He erupted for 147 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 carries last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He then followed that up with a three-touchdown performance on Thursday night against the New York Jets. He has been a fantasy superstar for the past two weeks, and he is all that fantasy football players can talk about. So why is a 23-year-old running back, coming off two great games, listed as a sell high? Well, there are a few reasons why Henderson is a sell high.

For starters, it is unlikely that Henderson will receive this level of volume when Rhamondre Stevenson returns from injury. The expectation is that the backfield will return to a committee when he returns. When both backs were healthy, Henderson never saw more than 14 opportunities in a game, and that was back in week three. Due to his recent performance, he will likely see more work than he did before Stevenson’s injury, but they will split the backfield. It has been made clear that this coaching staff wants to use multiple backs, and that caps Henderson’s floor and ceiling.

Along with the eventual return of Stevenson, the touchdowns and breakaway runs have distracted people from Henderson’s inefficiency as the lead back. Yes, he averaged 10.5 yards per carry against the Buccaneers, but that doesn’t tell the entire story of the game. If you take away his two breakaway touchdown runs of 55 and 69 yards, Henderson averaged just 1.9 yards per carry on the other 12 attempts. Against the Jets, he had just 93 total yards in 24 total touches.

This isn’t to say he’s a bad player at all, just a reminder that he is still dependent on big plays and or touchdowns. Henderson is one big play away from a great week, but without the breakaway runs, there hasn’t been much there.

Additionally, people love rookies, and they are always the hottest commodity on the market. Someone will always be willing to pay up for the brand new toy, which is Henderson in this case. There is nothing wrong with holding onto him, as he is a talented player, but his value is sky high right now, and it may be worth capitalizing on it.

Buy-Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Over the past few seasons, Alec Pierce was nothing more than a deep threat whom fantasy managers hoped would catch a bomb. Now, he is a well-rounded receiver who has become a reliable fantasy asset, and he is only 25.

Last season, Pierce had 11 games in which he recorded fewer than 60 receiving yards. Through eight games this season, he has only two games with fewer than 60 yards. Additionally, he never had a game last season in which he saw double-digit targets, and he already has two games of at least 10 targets this season. He is in the midst of a true breakout season, and he will get to cash in on it this offseason.

A recent article from ESPN’s Matt Bowen and Jeremy Fowler discusses the outlook on Pierce’s free agency, and it is very promising. It is expected that he could receive a deal worth up to $20 million per season this offseason, which would mean he is viewed as a featured piece for whoever pays him. There is no guarantee that Pierce gets $20 million a season, but he should still receive a nice payday.

Given the season he is having, his age, and the positive outlook on his future, Pierce is a great player to trade for in dynasty leagues. He shouldn’t cost any more than a second-round pick, and it may not even be that high a price. For either a rebuilder or contender, he is worth that price.

Sell-Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders

The window to sell Jacory Croskey-Merritt may have passed, but if it hasn’t, go move trade him to someone who is still a believer.

Merritt, who is better known as Bill, was one of the biggest stars of the pre-season. He played so well that the team decided to trade Brian Robinson, and it seemed like the right decision early in the season. Unfortunately, Merritt hasn’t been startable in fantasy football since his breakout performance in week five. He has averaged just under three yards per carry over the past six weeks, despite facing some of the league’s worst run defenses. Additionally, it appears that the team is now turning to Chris Rodriguez Jr. as the lead back, as he had more touches than Merritt and was much more productive.

Merritt is still just a rookie, and while he has been disappointing, he still carries name value, making him a potential target for other managers. It was a fun ride early in the season, and maybe he will turn things around, but trying to capitalize on any remaining value is the best decision.

Buy-Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions

After a very slow start, Jameson Williams has been one of the better receivers in fantasy football since the team’s bye week. In the three games since the Detroit Lions bye week, he has averaged 6.6 targets, 4.6 receptions, 91 yards, and one touchdown per game. Williams has been much more involved, and it was widely expected that he would see more volume following the bye.

Williams is just 24 years old, and he recently signed a three-year deal worth $83 million, tying him to the Lions for at least the next four seasons. He isn’t the safest play, but all it takes is one play for him to have a good week for fantasy. Given his inconsistency this season, some managers may be willing to part with Williams for less than he is worth. He is a strong buy for any build given his age and contract situation.

Sell-Woody Marks

Woody Marks has been a hidden gem for fantasy football this season, but from a dynasty standpoint, it may be best to sell high on him. He was a fourth-round pick in this past draft, meaning he doesn’t exactly have the most job security. Just a few seasons ago, his own team drafted Damien Pierce in the fourth round, and then replaced him the next season, despite a strong rookie season. Now, it isn’t a guarantee that Marks will be replaced, but he is already in a committee with Nick Chubb, so it feels unlikely that he will lead the backfield next season.

Joe Mixon should be back with the team next season, and he will likely be the starter. If he isn’t back with the team, that likely means they will be drafting a running back at some point. To further the argument that they will add to the running back room, a report from Jeremy Fowler from earlier this season mentions how the team views Marks as a pass-catching back. The team had made it clear that they want to have a committee in the backfield, and he fits into it as a third-down back and a change-of-pace back. Not the lead back.

Marks has been good this season, but it’s always scary to trust day three running backs, given teams’ track records of replacing them. So, selling him before the team potentially adds to the running back room over the off-season may be the smart move.

Buy High-Tetairoa McMillan

Is it going to hard to acquire Tetairoa McMillan following a career game this past weekend? Yes, it will be difficult, but it will be worth it.

McMillan currently has the sixth most receiving yards in the league this season, but it hasn’t felt like it for fantasy football. That’s likely because he only has four touchdowns, and they have all been scored in multi-touchdown games. When looking at his game log, it is hard to ignore his consistency. McMillan has seen at least eight targets in eight of the team’s 11 games so far, and he has either reached 60 yards or scored a touchdown in eight of the 11 games. He has been the focal point of the Carolina Panthers’ passing game since the first game.

Following a breakout performance, fantasy football managers may not want to part with McMillan, as he has all the makings of a future star, but everyone has a price. If the manager of the standout rookie can be convinced to move the Panthers star, then don’t spare any expense when making offers. He already has an extremely safe floor, and as seen last week, he has a week-winning ceiling.

At just 22 years old, McMillan already looks like a veteran receiver, and he should only continue to get better, making him a great trade candidate in dynasty leagues.

Other Sell Candidates

RJ Harvey will have an opportunity to start the rest of the season with J.K. Dobbins injured, and that will be enticing to fantasy players who liked him as a prospect. People could look to acquire him for a playoff push, as starting running backs are so hard to find, and selling him is the right move. He is a 24-year-old rookie who was viewed as a reach by a lot of people during the draft, and the team wants to bring back J.K. Dobbins in the off-season. It is hard to imagine Harvey ever being in total control of the backfield, and that was even the case this past weekend.

Jaxson Dart quickly became a fan favorite, for both the NFL and fantasy football. He made the New York Giants fun to watch again, and he has played better than anyone could have imagined. He has also been running more than anyone imagined, and while that has led to fantasy success, it has led to injury concerns as well. Dart has already been checked for four concussions in just seven games, and that is an alarming number.

Dart needs to learn how to protect himself when running; otherwise, the injuries could continue. Given the demand for rookies, trading Dart for a quarterback in his tier, along with another piece, makes a lot of sense, just because of the already alarming injury concerns.

If a contender is looking for some receiver help, go trade them DK Metcalf. He still holds a lot of name value, and he has scored enough touchdowns this season to keep fantasy relevant. It would be a lie to say, though, that there are no concerns around him moving forward. He is tied to the Steelers for the next five seasons, and given the organization’s recent history, that is concerning. Instead of searching for a young franchise quarterback, they have consistently brought in middle-of-the-pack veteran stop gaps each year. This has led to multiple frustrating fantasy football seasons for players such as George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and now Metcalf.

He has yet to record more than five receptions in a single game this season, and he hasn’t recorded more than 55 yards in a game since week six. The Arthur Smith offense focuses on running backs, tight ends, and seemingly everyone besides the wide receiver one. Metcalf will be a part of that offense for the foreseeable future, which is concerning for fantasy football.

Other Buy Candidates

The entire Chargers offense should be viewed as good trade targets in dynasty. The offense has been up and down this season, but that is largely due to their offensive line being severely injured. With the unit hopefully being fully healthy next year, the offense should be amongst the best in the league.

Justin Herbert is already one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and he was elite to start the season. Omarion Hampton looked every bit a true difference-making running back before his injury. Ladd McConkey is the best receiver on the team, and he can win at every level. Quentin Johnston’s breakout was put on pause as Herbert has had no time to throw downfield, but he looked like he made major strides this offseason. Oronde Gadsden II looks like a true difference maker at tight end, and Tre Harris is loved by the coaching staff; he will take Keenan Allen’s role next season.

The offense has so many talented players on it, and if the offensive line is healthy next year, the offense should be elite.

Luther Burden hasn’t played much, but he flashes every time he gets the ball, especially after the catch. He will take over as a full-time starter next season, and he has all the talent to be a difference-maker in fantasy football. If any team has a late first-round pick that they are willing to move, then it is worth a shot. If Burden can be had for even cheaper, then that is a deal that managers should absolutely jump on. He is a great buy low for rebuilders.

Ricky Pearsall was off to a fantastic start this season, as he had 327 yards through the first three and a half games of the season. He looked like a first-round receiver, and a true wide receiver one for the San Francisco 49ers. He then suffered an injury, and he didn’t return till this past weekend. He played a lot, but he had just one catch for zero yards, and some people may be concerned, and if they are, go make a move for him.

This team has talked him up since the off-season, and he was producing at a very high level before his injury. Considering Pearsall doesn’t have a long history of production due to injuries, he may be able to be had for cheaper than he should be.

End Of My Fantasy Football Stock Market Rant

There are a lot of factors that come into building a great dynasty roster, and managing the trade market is one of them. Capitalizing on value is key, and so is finding hidden gems on the trade market.

People love rookies, and when they show signs of life, everyone wants to acquire them. On the other hand, when rookies don’t produce, people are quick to write them off, making them good buy lows. Maximizing running backs value is always a good move, because outside of a select few, most only have elite fantasy value for a few seasons. Acquiring young talent and receivers is always a good thing because they have a much longer shelf life than running backs in the dynasty landscape.

There are so many different ways to navigate the trade market in dynasty, but the most important thing is to maximize value. That could be from selling high, buying low, or sometimes buying at peak value, but always look for value.

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