Fins vs. Ravens: The Tale of the Tape

INDIVIDUAL STATS

• Tua ranks 1^st in passing yards, 6^th in passing TDs, and 2^nd in passer rating. The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson ranks 15^th, 14^th, and 7^th in those categories.  Jackson has also piled up 786 yards rushing which is good for 20^th in the league.
• Tyreek Hill ranks 1^st in reception yards, 3^rd in receptions, and 2^nd in TDs. Ravens’ top receiver Zay Flowers ranks 41^st, 21^st, and 46^th in TDs.
• Raheem Mostert ranks 4^th in rushing yards, 8^th in rushing yards per game and 1^st in rushing TDs. De’Von Achane ranks 5^th in yards per game and 2^nd in average per carry.  Ravens’ running back Gus Edwards ranks 27^th in rushing yards, 33^rd in yards per game, but 5^th in TD’s with 12.
• Miami’s sack leader is Bradley Chubb who ranks 14^th with 11 sacks. Ravens’ Justin Madunuike is 11^th with 12.0 sacks.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

These matchups are incredibly even.  Each team’s offensive and defensive unit ranks near the top 5 or better.

Fins offense vs. Ravens defense.  Is this the immovable object meets the irresistible force?  The Dolphins are ranked 1^st in scoring, but the Ravens are ranked 1^st in points allowed.  Miami is ranked 1^st in passing offense, but the Ravens are ranked 6^th in pass defense.  Miami will be without Jalen Waddle at wide receiver as well as running back Raheem Mostert which takes a lot of speed off the field.  Tua HAS had success vs. the Ravens.  According to Joe Schad, Tua is 2-0 vs. the Ravens with 627 yards, 6 TDs, and 2 INTs.  For this trend to continue, Miami’s patchwork offensive line needs to give him time to throw which won’t be easy going up against the top-ranked sack defense.  There’s a slight separation in rushing but only slight.  The Fins rank 4^th in rushing yards while the Ravens rank 12^th in rush yards allowed.  Advantage: Even

Fins defense vs. Ravens offense.  This is another immovable object/irresistible force scenario.  The big question is, how does Vic Fangio plan to contain Lamar Jackson?  Will he try to take away Jackson’s scrambling game by using a spy?  I think that’s imperative.  Given a choice, make him throw vs. run. If you take away his 736 yards rushing, the Ravens are an average rushing team.  The Ravens are ranked a surprisingly 6^th in passing offense which leads to the key of this match up.  The Dolphin secondary is banged up.  Jevon Holland has missed several games.  Jalen Ramsey showed up on the injury report with a knee injury.  This is another even match; however, if Ramsey and Holland don’t play, the advantage shifts to the Ravens.  Advantage: Even.

Kicking game.  Jason Sanders made some huge progress last week going a perfect 5-5 raising his percentage made from 81% (17-21) to 85% (22-26).  That moved him up to 19^th best in the league just behind future Hall of Famer Justin Tucker who is a mere 31-36 (86%) this year.  Tucker is the all-time NFL leader in percentage of field goals made so for him, he’s having an off year, but if you had to choose ne kicker to make a field goal, for my money it’s him.   Ravens punter Jordan Stout is averaging 47.1 gross yards per punt but only 39.5 net.  That ranks him tied 14^th and 29^th in the league.  Fins punter Jake Bailey has languished near the bottom of the league in gross and net yards per punt.  Bailey averages 45.0 gross and 41.8 net which ranks him 30^th and 19^th.  Advantage: Edge to Ravens.

Intangibles.  The winner of this game takes the lead in the battle for the AFC’s #1 seed.  The Ravens have the home field advantage and coach John Harbaugh who has won many a big game showdown. The Dolphins have one thing left to prove, and that’s beating a team with a winning record on the road.  They may be taking the conservative route by sitting players who aren’t 100% so that they are assured to play next week in the battle of the AFC East against Buffalo.  Hence, they may have to wait until the playoffs to check that box. Advantage: Ravens.

Last week, I played the under which was an easy winner.  This week?  I won’t actually know until the inactives and starters are announced.  If Miami has Ramsey and Holland, I think they cover the 3.5-point spread but lose on a Justin Tucker field goal.  Ravens 24-21.  Without Ramsey, I think the Ravens win 27-17.  In either scenario, I once again like the under 46.5