
The Denver Broncos have a tougher matchup this week than many expected a few weeks ago. The Houston Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but their formerly struggling offense has begun to emerge over recent weeks.
This suggests a lower-scoring game between two great defenses and two offenses that have struggled to find consistency this season but are showing signs of life. For the Broncos to win their sixth straight game, they need their offense to step up against the most formidable opponent they'll face this season.
If the Broncos can achieve today's bold predictions, they are likely to leave Houston with their sixth straight win, sitting pretty in the playoff seeding. While this game isn’t a must-win, the Broncos need it to make a statement in the AFC.
With that said, let’s get to Week 9's bold predictions.
Over their eight games, the Broncos have had four contests with at least 350 yards of offense, all four of which were in the past five weeks. So, even when the Broncos' offense has struggled over that span, they've still picked up yards.
What makes this a bold prediction is how the Texans have done: they have allowed one team to eclipse 350 yards, and that was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second game of the season, who picked up 360 yards. That is one of two games the Texans have allowed over 300 yards of offense to their opponent.
But the Broncos get over 350 in a bit of a shock to the NFL system.
Both rookies are coming off big games, with Pat Bryant having two catches for 40 yards and a touchdown, and RJ Harvey having eight touches for 48 yards and three touchdowns. They provided a spark and have shown how they can help the Broncos' offense, and Sean Payton has talked about getting them the ball more often.
Now, to achieve this, the Broncos will need to find consistency in both players. Both of Bryant’s catches came in the first half, while Harvey had 43 yards and three touchdowns on three plays, meaning his other five touches picked up a total of five yards.
The Texans are not a defense where you can ‘waste’ downs by picking up one yard per play.
Denver has four games with a pressure rate of 50% plus this season, while the Texans have allowed a high of 41.2% pressure rate as their lone game over 40%. Stroud has done a good job of getting the ball out quickly to help negate pressure and take what the defense gives him.
With the simulated pressures and pressure packages Joseph has shown this season, the Broncos have been outstanding at generating pressure, but getting over 50% against the Texans is incredibly bold. The Broncos will need their cornerbacks to play tight coverage off the snap to make this prediction a reality, and that ties into their need to blitz Stroud.
The Texans' offense has not been great and has only broken 300 yards of offense three times this season, but all three came in three of their last four games. This offense has shown signs of life and has been emerging.
The Broncos also have only three games this season in which opposing offenses were held under 300 yards, and those games came against three of the worst offenses in the NFL: the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, and Tennessee Titans. So, while this prediction is on the safer side, the recent trends of both teams still keep this bold.
Given the quality of these two defenses and the status of both offenses, this is shaping up to be a low-scoring defensive affair, with the offenses playing a ball-control style. The line is set at 39.5 points, so a low-scoring game is expected, but 39.5 feels generous.
With how these teams are on offense and defense, it looks like a 16-13 score, with a last-second field goal to win it. It’ll likely be an ugly offensive game, with whichever team best runs the ball walking out with the win.
However, not having Patrick Surtain II opens the door for the Texans' passing offense to find success. Hopefully, the Broncos have a plan to cover for missing the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.
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