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Four 2017 developments that could have the NFL trending downward
Plagued by constant scandal, an aging core demographic and overseen by executives almost preternaturally gifted at enraging the public, the NFL has for years seemed on the verge of a great decline, and yet the other shoe is still yet to drop.
An early season ratings dip in 2016 convinced some, especially media pundits, that the tipping point had finally arrived. That is, at least until after the presidential election was over, and the numbers recovered somewhat. Of course, it wasn’t quite so simple as “people were distracted by politics.” Some worrisome vulnerabilities were exposed, causing observers to question the future of the NFL’s status as invulnerable sporting behemoth.
News last week that NFL’s up-front ad sales were at their weakest point since the Great Recession in 2008 is another cause for alarm. While advertising experts caution that such a development isn’t apocalyptic by any means for pro football, it does mean that another year in which fan interest is slow to build through the season could be financially damaging to the NFL.
In 2017, the NFL won’t have the handy excuse of the election if fan interest flags. The league is still going to make money this upcoming season no matter what because of existing television contracts that total into the billions. CBS, FOX, NBC and ESPN handed the NFL $5 billion alone for 2016. ESPNer Linda Cohn has pointed to the high rights fees the network pays as a reason behind ESPN’s recent layoffs of on-air talent.
Even with the 8 percent overall decline in ratings for the 2016 regular season, the NFL reportedly had a 3 percent increase in ad revenue over 2015. Perhaps that net profit is owed to the interest rebound late in the season, and advertisers are hesitant to commit money to ad spots now, when it’s hard to tell whether the first half of the NFL regular season will remain a little spotty.
This means a poor early start to the 2017 season could really harm broadcasters, which already operate at a loss broadcasting the NFL due to the immense cost for rights. Advertisers will spend once the fall arrives, but if ratings are down, the networks will have to settle for rates substantially lower than what they’ve expected. Again, this doesn’t spell disaster for the league this year necessarily. What it will do is begin to spell the end for permanent growth for the NFL and finally lead broadcasters to question whether they’ll continue to pay any price for the chance to broadcast pro football.
So what could touch off that huge decline, other than fans continuing to leave broadcast TV behind for streaming, coupled with a few months of uninspired play? Here are a few likely culprits.
Kaepernick outrage is real
Obviously, there are many people angry that Colin Kaepernick remains unsigned by an NFL team, and with good reason. Looking at social media, it’s not difficult to find people who claim this story is what will finally destroy what is left of their willingness to watch the sport. But does this translate into actual loss of viewership?
When Kaepernick first began his anthem protest last summer, conservatives vowed to boycott the league for not forcing the then-49ers quarterback to cease the kneeling at once. Those threats never materialized in viewership data. So will those on the left be any more serious when they claim Kaepernick not being on a team will keep them from watching? It’s impossible to know until the numbers actually come in, but it’s also a factor that can’t be dismissed outright.
The Cowboys struggle
Dallas may have a ton of detractors, but the Cowboys aren’t “America’s Team” for nothing. The franchise is massively popular. In 2016, a 13-3 record coupled with an exciting first-year starter at quarterback made Dallas an even bigger ratings draw than usual, leading some to claim that the Cowboys nearly singlehandedly saved the 2016 season for the NFL thanks entirely to a plethora of late-season prime time appearances.
Dallas following up a breakout 2016 season with a middling or even poor one would be damaging to league-wide numbers. The expectation is that they’ll remain at least good, though one never does know with most teams until the season actually begins.
The Patriots take another run at 19-0
New England has become one of the more popular franchises in the NFL in its own right. Still, the Pats running roughshod over the league, especially when they’ve won two of the past three Super Bowls, isn’t going to make for compelling viewing. Sure, Pats fans will enjoy it, but it’s hard to build excitement around an AFC race that increasingly seems uncompetitive and a season that may lack drama until its final game.
Quarterback injuries are worse than normal
This, of course, is an annual concern for the NFL. Injuries are a constant in football, and seemingly at least one big-name quarterback goes down early in the season. This is a matter of luck, for the most part. Fans notice a drop-off in quality more quickly with quarterback play than any other position. By midseason, there are already gripes about games where both starting quarterbacks are unremarkable backups that are painful to watch.
All it takes is one or two of the better passers in the league to go down to really drag down some of the league’s more enticing matchups. Aaron Rodgers? Tom Brady? Drew Brees? Russell Wilson? Take any of them away for an extended period, and you’re talking about possibly ruining all-important prime time games.
More must-reads:
- NFL upfront ad market may be “softest since 2008,” but broadcasters bet on big money later
- Cowboys QB Dak Prescott used machine to sign autographs?
- The 'Touchdown passes from Tom Brady' quiz
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