Four AFC South players who will make the biggest leap in 2023

With three of the four teams in the AFC South drafting their presumed quarterback of the future, the 2023 season could be a year of transition for the division. Here are four players — one per team — that should elevate their game to a new level in 2023:

Houston Texans

Dameon Pierce, RB: The 23-year-old running back had a fine rookie season, rushing for 939 yards and four touchdowns on 220 carries while adding 30 receptions for 165 yards and another score. He was the first running back since Carlos Hyde in 2019 to top 900 yards rushing and just the third back in the last seven seasons to reach the milestone.

Injuries limited Pierce to just 13 games in 2022, so if he can stay healthy for a full season, he should have no problem topping 1,000 rushing yards. Houston’s 398 rushing attempts were also the third-fewest in the league, and with rookie QB C.J. Stroud likely to start out of the gate, first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans could rely heavily on his do-it-all tailback to help take some of the pressure off Stroud.

Indianapolis Colts

Kwity Paye, DE: Paye has put up solid numbers in his first two years with the Colts, but as he heads into Year 3, he’s well set up to become an impact pass rusher. With last year’s leading sacker Yannick Ngakoue a free agent, Paye will likely assume the role of Indy’s top threat off the edge.

He had 34 pressures, 24 hurries and six sacks in just 12 games last season, and if he can stay healthy for a full season, there’s no reason he couldn’t come close to doubling his production. With defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart plus defensive ends Dayo Odeyingbo, Samson Ebukam and rookie Adetomiwa Adebawore, Paye is likely to see fewer double teams, freeing him up to pin his ears back and consistently get into the opposing team’s backfield.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Calvin Ridley, WR: While Ridley did miss the 2022 season while serving a gambling-related suspension, he will be a big focal point of Jacksonville’s offense in 2023. The Jaguars had three receivers with 80 or more targets last season, and with Marvin Jones Jr. now in Detroit, Ridley should see a high volume of targets in his place.

Zay Jones set career highs in targets (121), receptions (80) and yards (823) last year as the Jaguars' No. 2 receiver and adding Ridley to the mix gives Trevor Lawrence even more options. Jacksonville had the ninth-most pass attempts in the NFL last season, and Ridley thrives in offenses where he has a high target rate; he’s had double-digit targets in more than 30 percent of his games (16 of 49), and he was targeted 90 or more times in three of his first four seasons.

Tennessee Titans

Treylon Burks, WR: Robert Woods is in Houston and the only receiver the Titans have added so far this offseason is seventh-round pick Colton Dowell, meaning the team is banking on Burks having a breakout 2023 season. Limited to just 11 games during his rookie season, Burks had 33 receptions, 444 yards and just one touchdown. 

However, he was Tennessee’s second-most targeted receiver, his 5.4 yards after the catch per reception was tops among all Titans receivers and his contested catch rate of 58.3 was the highest among the team’s receivers with double-digit receptions. It’s not unreasonable to expect Burks to have a second season similar to the one A.J. Brown had in Tennessee (106 targets, 70 receptions, 1,075 yards, 11 touchdowns).