George Pickens Cowboys Future Down to 3 Scenarios

The Dallas Cowboys shook up their offense this offseason in a multitude of ways - through an affordable free agency, a highly-praised NFL Draft haul, and with a trade with the Pittsburgh Steelers to acquire explosive receiver George Pickens.

Next offseason is shaping up to be even more newsworthy, but for reasons that mainly involve current Cowboys players and their expiring contracts ... with Pickens now joining the group that is eligible for an extension.

Pickens joins the Cowboys as an exceptional athlete, proven competitor and already one of the NFL's best deep-threat receivers - something Dallas has desperately needed - at only 24 years old. He also comes with a history of immaturity and hot temper that is enough to raise some concern about his immediate and long-term future in Dallas.

This season will be Pickens' last year on his four-year rookie contract, and his behavioral growth could be as crucial in determining his future as his play on the field.

So, how will it turn out?

Given the state of this situation, here are some likely scenarios and how they might impact Pickens and the Cowboys after the 2025 season. Let's dive in.

SCENARIO 1 - Pickens is a perfect fit and re-signs with Dallas

In Cowboys fans' dream scenario, Pickens joins CeeDee Lamb to become one of the franchise's best wide receiver duos ever. On paper, this is a believable reality with how the two complement each other's game on the field.

Then, the Cowboys compensate Pickens accordingly by paying him a near top-of-the-market contract. Jerry Jones and the Cowboys can make this happen, logistically, if they want.

Re-signing Pickens would look a lot like how the Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins contracts look with the Cincinnati Bengals. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle with the Miami Dolphins is another example that this model can work financially.

How much would Pickens' deal be worth? That depends on how well he plays ...

SCENARIO 2 - Pickens plays so well he prices himself out of Dallas

COO Stephen Jones was quoted this week saying the Cowboys organization looks at Lamb and Pickens with potential to be 1A and 1B receivers rather than a clear No. 1 and 2 option.

If this becomes true, Pickens could blossom into a star if everything aligns perfectly and he plays great. He could play his way into elite status and request to be paid as such.

Anything near 1,200 yards receiving and double-digit touchdowns could put Pickens in this upper echelon ... especially if he shows a commitment to character growth to help his off-field reputation.

There are only six receivers in the NFL who make at least $30 million on average salary ... and with Lamb being one of them at $35 million, a deal at this price tag for Pickens could be a little too rich for the Cowboys.

This will depend on what Pickens' believes he deserves and if the Cowboys could negotiate him down to re-sign with Dallas.

All involved could use the historically-frugal Cincinnati Bengals as a model here.

This offseason, Bengals receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins each signed new contract extensions. Chase is at $161 million for four years, Higgins at $115 mil for four years.

That's $40 mil APY for Chase. And $28.75 for Higgins.

Bottom line: While it's certainly not our prediction ... If the Bengals can do this, the Cowboys can in theory, too.

If he signs a big-time contract elsewhere? It is a rental for the Cowboys, but may not be all bad news.

SCENARIO 3 - Dallas gets compensatory capital if Pickens leaves in free agency

Jerry loves stacking his compensatory draft picks if he can't retain his free agents. That could be the case here and the Cowboys could have a chance to break even.

We won't try to explain the mathematical formula that awards comp picks, but it has to do with how much Pickens signs for next offseason.

Best case? Dallas is awarded a third-round pick. But that probably wouldn't happen unless Pickens signed a contract in CeeDee territory.

Otherwise? Dallas could be in store for a fourth- or fifth-rounder, which could be decent return. Regardless, it still means the Pickens experiment was a rental and didn't work out as well as intended.

These are all "what if's", so all we should focus on now is the guarantee of Pickens in Dallas for 2025.

He is about to be under a microscope like never before.

That is partly because Pickens now plays for "America's Team", the world's most notable sports brand, but it is also because there will constantly be eyes on him - everywhere from the locker room to the field - that survey his progress in straightening up his act.

And Scenario 3 can simply be all about how this thing blows up in everybody's faces. ... with "George is a diva'' or a "bad apple'' or even a "cancer'' all coming horribly true. (In which case his next contract elsewhere won't be huge and the Dallas comp pick will be lessened.)

For the Cowboys, contractually? They will have their plate full with Pickens, DaRon Bland, Tyler Smith, Brandon Aubrey, Jake Ferguson and others having expired contracts.

Oh, and Micah Parsons, too, if things stay the way they are now.

All of the above names are represented by the agency Athlete's First, with agent David Mulugheta in the mix as counsel for many of them.

Ideally, the front office tries to make things work with as many players as possible, Pickens included, but it isn't always that easy.

The George Pickens situation is just the tip of the iceberg in predicting how the Dallas Cowboys' offseason money plans will go.