New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll wants to throw the ball downfield more often than in the past, but will he be able to if Russell Wilson is his starting quarterback?
Although Wilson specializes in the moonball, there’s another passing statistic in which he’s led the league over the last two seasons: check-down rate.
Per PFF, Wilson accrued a 19.2% check-down rate in 2024, completing 53 of 61 passes for 389 yards and 21 touchdowns. On such plays, Wilson managed just 6.3 yards per attempt.
However, he wasn't efficient on checkdowns. His 58.3 PFF passing grade on those plays was the sixth-worst among quarterbacks. On one such check-down play, Wilson lazily lobbed the ball to an open check-down option, intercepted it, and returned it for a crucial pick-six against the Ravens in Week 16.
Wilson was the only quarterback in the league the previous season with a 10%-plus check-down rate.
The fact that Wilson also led the league in check-downs on third and fourth down should be more concerning. He threw 17 checkdowns on 103 dropbacks for a 16.5% rate. Usually, quarterbacks are more inclined to throw the ball downfield to pick up the first down to extend drives.
Ironically, Daniel Jones, whom Wilson is replacing as the Giants' starting quarterback, had the third-lowest check-down rate last season, throwing just 23 check-downs on 309 passing attempts for a 7.4% rate.
The former Giant also finished with the third-lowest check-down rate on third and fourth downs with a 3.1% rate, throwing only three check-downs on 97 total dropbacks.
Jones started in 10 games for Big Blue last season before being benched after the team's bye week due to poor performances.
He was released five days later after the team prohibited him from participating in any activities that put him at risk for injury. This was due to his $23 million injury guarantee in his contract, which would have kicked in had he suffered an injury that would have kept him from passing a physical this year.
Wilson, meanwhile, missed the first six games due to a calf injury after signing a one-year deal with the Steelers.
Wilson was not always the check-down king he has been the last two seasons. In his final two seasons with the Seattle Seahawks, he had a 5.8% rate.
Many factors could have led to the increase in crackdowns, including transitioning to new offensive schemes with poor offensive lines or even being asked by the offensive coordinator to do more crackdowns.
Worth noting is that in his first season in Denver, under first-year head coach Nathanial Hackett, Wilson's check-down rate increased to 9.6%. Hackett likes to utilize RPOs and short-passing attacks in his offense.
Sean Payton, who took over for Hackett the following season, runs a similar offensive style, but Wilson, for whatever reason, didn’t mesh with Payton and the Broncos, who drafted Bo Nix last year to be their franchise signal caller.
As a member of the Steelers, Wilson operated behind a shaky offensive line with few weapons at his disposal other than for receiver George Pickens. The offensive line allowed a 38.6% regular-season pressure rate (29th), 49 sacks, 148 total pressures, and 61 quarterback hits.
The pressure and the receivers' inability to create separation may have led to increased check-downs from Wilson. However, while the Giants' offensive line has some concerns, it has a solid receiving core, which could allow Wilson to move the ball downfield at a higher rate, thereby reducing his check-down percentage.
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