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- Oct 6, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) drops back to pass as Los Angeles Rams safety Kamren Curl (3) moves in during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Green Bay Packers 2025 Win Total: Why The 9.5-Game Line Is Pure Vegas Genius

Originally posted on Total Apex Fantasy Sports
By Nicholas Mullick | Last updated Aug 26, 2025 12:18 AM ET

The oddsmakers in Vegas are having themselves a chuckle right about now. While most NFL teams get win totals that lean one way or another, the Green Bay Packers are sitting pretty at exactly 9.5 wins with dead-even -110 odds on both sides. It’s like watching a perfectly balanced seesaw, except this one involves millions of dollars in wagers and the hopes of Cheeseheads everywhere.

The Packers’ 2024 Reality Check

Let’s get one thing straight: the Packers were an enigma wrapped in green and gold last season. They rattled off 11 wins, looking like world-beaters against most of the NFL. But when it came to their own backyard, the NFC North, they folded like a cheap lawn chair. Five of their six losses came within the division, with four decided by less than a field goal.

That’s not just bad luck. That’s a team that couldn’t figure out how to win the games that actually mattered for playoff seeding. Sure, they made the postseason, but finishing third in your own division after 11 wins? That stings worse than Jordan Love‘s injury scare last season.

Why the Over Makes Sense for Green Bay

Sep 22, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) runs the ball against the Tennessee Titans during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Here’s where things get interesting for Packers backers. Despite all that talent, Green Bay ran into a buzzsaw of terrible timing last season. They finished 1.7 wins under their expected total, one of the unluckiest teams in the league.

The schedule gods might finally be smiling on Lambeau Field. Green Bay’s 2025 opponents finished a whopping 6.1 wins over their expected totals in 2024. That’s regression waiting to happen, and it favors the Packers in a big way. When your opponents are expected to be worse than they were last year, that’s free money sitting on the table. Even more encouraging? The brutal games are mostly at home this time around. Home-field advantage in Green Bay isn’t just about the frozen tundra: it’s about a fanbase that can rattle visiting quarterbacks and create chaos when it matters most.

The Division Factor Nobody’s Discussing

Let’s talk about the real wild card here: the NFC North arms race. The Detroit Lions are sitting pretty with a 10.5 win total, and they’ve got legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. The Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings both carry 8.5-win expectations, but both teams made significant upgrades this offseason. The Packers’ division woes from 2024 weren’t a fluke; they were a warning sign. Going 1-5 in your division games isn’t just bad luck; it’s a pattern that suggests deeper issues with preparation and execution when facing familiar opponents.

Final Verdict: Maybe It’s Best To No Bet This Win Total

The over bet requires believing in positive regression and home-field advantage. The under bet banks on the NFC North becoming even more competitive and the injury luck running out. Both scenarios are entirely plausible. For what it’s worth, slightly lean toward the over of the 9.5 win total odds, but only slightly. The combination of opponent regression and home scheduling advantages creates just enough of an edge to justify the wager. But don’t bet the farm on it, and if you avoid it, that’s not a bad plan either.

This article first appeared on Total Apex Fantasy Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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