Outside of quarterback, there are precious few players that can change the NFL betting landscape. The Green Bay Packers just added one of them. Lining up opposite Rashan Gary at defensive end, Micah Parsons cures the roster’s primary weakness: lack of a dominant pass rusher. While the defense as a whole generated decent pressure and ranked 10th in sacks last season, no one player struck real fear into opposing passers.
That is the case no longer. Acquiring Parsons – for the cheap cost of DT Kenny Clark and two low-value first-round picks – is not only cause for celebration among Packers fans, it has had a seismic effect in the material world of betting odds. In the public eye, Green Bay has gone from projected wild card and dark horse contender to the new NFC North favorites, along with a substantial boost to their Super Bowl chances.
After going 15-2 last year and making the conference title game in 2023, the Detroit Lions rightfully laid claim to the shortest division odds for the third straight season. That was before the Parsons trade happened. Since then, the Packers have vaulted to the top of the division odds leaderboard at a consensus price of +167. The over/under on their win total has gone from 9.5 to 10.5. Following through on the hype, a division title would be Green Bay’s first since 2021.
It’s worth noting that those numbers are only the sum of oddsmaker evaluations across sportsbooks. Some individual books still have the Lions as slight favorites. Interestingly enough, consensus Super Bowl odds peg the Packers and Lions at the same +1200 price. That’s a lot shorter than Green Bay was before – down around +1900 – but it does suggest that oddsmakers aren’t fully bought in on the Packers as the superior team.
For those looking to hold on to an underdog mentality, this is the perfect opportunity. The division’s most well-rounded roster just added the NFC’s best sacks machine. And they still have doubters?
It sure looks like a division-winning roster.
QB – Jordan Love
RB – Josh Jacobs
WR – Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Romeo Doubs
TE – Tucker Kraft
OL – Zach Tom, Elgton Jenkins, Aaron Banks
DL – Micah Parsons, Rashan Gary, Devonte Wyatt
LB – Edgerrin Cooper, Quay Walker, Isaiah McDuffie
DB – Xavier McKinney, Evan Williams, Keisean Nixon, Nate Hobbs
K – Brandon McManus
Luckily, the debate will get immediate clarity when the Packers host the Lions in Week 1. Up from -1 to -1.5-point home favorites on the pre-trade spread, Green Bay is now listed at -2.5. The moneyline has risen 15 to 20 cents up to -140.
For Packers fans, it’s hard to imagine a better scenario to start the season, showing off the league’s shiniest new toy against their top division rival.
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