After a disastrous playoff performance in the AFC Wild Card round, Justin Herbert’s reputation as a passer has plummeted from where it stood at the end of the regular season. In just one game, Herbert threw more interceptions than he did throughout the entire 2024 season: four. Comparing his impressive 3,870-yard regular season with a 23:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio to his nightmare performance in Houston makes it seem like two different quarterbacks were playing.
There is considerable concern about Herbert’s ability to perform in the playoffs and late in games, given how his season ended. This led Pro Football Focus to assign him a surprisingly low ranking in their QB rankings piece heading into the 2025 season.
However, the data suggests that Herbert’s supposed inability to perform late in games may be a false narrative.
In their recent piece, PFF ranked Herbert as the eighth-best quarterback in the league, placing him as a fringe tier-2 quarterback behind Matthew Stafford, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts, respectively.
While all these quarterbacks are elite in their own right, Herbert’s long-standing reputation as a top-notch, near-consensus top-five quarterback in the league makes this drastic drop feel rushed.
PFF provided two reasons why Herbert deserved such a shockingly low ranking: his poor playoff performance against the Texans and his underwhelming play in clutch situations.
For context, PFF ranked Herbert as the fifth-best quarterback heading into the 2024 season, placing him behind only Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes.
His PFF passing grade of 90.8 in 2024 ranked as the fourth-best mark in the league, and Herbert led the Chargers to an 11-6 record.
Considering Herbert’s 2024 season as a whole, his playoff performance was a poor showing against a great Texans defense that recorded the second-most interceptions in the league that year. Relying on this performance to completely reassess Herbert’s quarterbacking skills and standing in the league seems premature, especially given his limited supporting cast.
PFF’s second reason for Herbert’s ranking was his poor performance in clutch situations. However, the data tells a different story.
According to Pro Football Reference, Herbert has recorded 16 game-winning drives in his five years in the league, good for 97th all-time. Although this number may not seem impressive, the names he surpasses certainly are – Steve Young, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson, to name a few.
In 2024 alone, Herbert had two game-winning drives: one against the Cincinnati Bengals and another against the Denver Broncos. Many remember his performance against the Bengals, as the thrilling Sunday Night Football matchup featured two elite quarterbacks, Herbert and Burrow, dueling it out. The pair combined for 653 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions, but when the game clock hit zero, Herbert emerged as the victor.
During the drive that sealed the game, Herbert executed the two-minute drill to near-perfection. He connected with rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey on two well-placed throws for 28 and 27 yards, respectively, advancing the Chargers to the Bengals’ 28-yard line. This set the stage for running back J.K. Dobbins, whose powerful 28-yard touchdown run essentially ended the game.
Herbert’s ranking may be lower than he deserves, given the success he and the Chargers had in 2024. While what matters most is one’s ability to perform in the playoffs and win a championship, it isn’t the ultimate factor for evaluating quarterbacks, especially considering the importance of having a complete team at that stage of the season.
With the Chargers’ offseason additions to the offense, however, the excuse of a weak supporting cast is coming to an end, and it’s time for the Chargers to make a deep playoff run.
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