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Here's what Dak Prescott's next contract would look like if the Cowboys decide to extend him

Originally posted on A to Z Sports
By Kyle DeDiminicantanio | Last updated 5/8/24

Once widely expected, the Dallas Cowboys and owner Jerry Jones made a bold decision this offseason to not extend star quarterback Dak Prescott. Instead they made a small adjustment by converting his $5 million roster bonus this year into a signing bonus and reducing his salary cap charge by $4 million. Consequently, the Cowboys are on the hook for a $55 million salary cap hit this year with another $40 million dead cap charge in 2025.

Prescott is coming off of a season where his success was only rivaled by how disappointing his play was in an embarrassing loss to the Packers at home in the playoffs. The loss brought his career playoff record to 2-5 and has caused Jones to question whether Prescott can bring him his coveted fourth Super Bowl.

As a result the Cowboys have made next to no offseason additions while key contributors from their 2023 campaign such as running back Tony Pollard, defensive ends Torance Armstrong and Dante Fowler, center Tyler Biadasz and offensive tackle Tyron Smith. Currently the Cowboys have less than $7 million in salary cap space in part because Prescott is occupying over 20% of the cap.

But what if Jones and the Cowboys had decided to extend Prescott? What would the deal have looked like? How much cap savings would it have given them for 2024?

Prescott is entering the final year of a four-year, $160 million deal that he signed prior to 2021. The three years preceding that deal Prescott threw for 11,134 yards and 63 touchdowns to 24 interceptions while completing 66.5% of his passes. Four percent of his dropbacks resulted in what Pro Football Focus considers big time throws.

Since that time, Prescott has improved in every measurable area of his play. His completion percentage rose 1.8% while he threw for 694 more yards and 33 more touchdowns. His big time throw rate also rose by over 1%. Prescott’s gross interceptions went up from 24 to 34 but his turnover worthy play rate actually declined by a quarter of a point. Suffice to say, all of this plus the salary cap going up 40% supports the argument Prescott would likely make that his next deal would be for well north of the $40 million APY the current one pays him. But how much?

Let’s stack Prescott’s statistical production against that of other quarterbacks who have recently signed new deals. Here is each player’s previous three year’s worth of production prior to signing their most recent contracts.*

Via A To Z Sports

*Deshaun Watson’s stats are from 2018-2020 but his new deal was signed prior to 2022. He did not play in 2021.

Prescott ranks high within this list in several areas.

Completions: 2nd
Completion Percentage: 2nd
Yards: 3rd
TD: 1st
BTT: 3rd
BTT-TWP %: 3rd
YPA: 4th

The disparity in dropbacks can be a little misleading so here is each player’s numbers adjusted for about a season’s worth of drop backs (600).

Via A To Z Sports

Going back to the first chart, Prescott’s playoff record stands out as, well…bad. But it’s not that far out of line with several of the other signal-callers on this list. His .250 playoff winning percentage ranks 5th out of eight. The lack of playoff success would likely not hinder Prescott from pushing for another big deal given that it had not precluded the other names on this list from securing deals of $45 million per year or more.

The two quarterbacks whose production is closest to Prescott’s are Watson and Cousins. Watson signed a fully guaranteed deal for $46 million per year in 2022 and Cousins just got $45 million per year this offseason. This likely would have put a Prescott deal somewhere around $47.5 million per year, which would have taken him from the 11th highest paid quarterback in the NFL to the 5th. The vast majority of these top-of-the-market deals have come over lengths of five years.

Prescott’s most recent deal had just under 60% of the contract fully guaranteed. A similarly structured deal would look like this: Five years, $237.5 million with $142.5 million fully guaranteed.

This would all be as an extension that started in 2025 and would make the entire contract, including this year’s $29 million salary, a six-year, $266.5 million deal. The effects on Prescott’s 2024 salary cap hit would be considerable.

The Cowboys have not shied away from giving out large signing bonuses. A hypothetical structure of the new deal could have Dallas give Prescott a $51.5 million signing bonus while reducing his 2024 base salary to $2.5 million. Following salary/roster bonuses would be $32.5 million in 2025, $37.5 million in 2026, $42.5 million in 2027, $47.5 million in 2028 and $52.5 million in 2029.

This would reduce Prescott’s 2024 salary cap hit by $16.2 million and would have given the Cowboys the ability to address some losses on the offensive line or find a replacement for Pollard or any number of other roster upgrades. Instead Jones is forcing Prescott to prove he can play at the top of his abilities on the biggest stage before they commit a quarter of a billion dollars to their quarterback.