Houston Texans floor and ceiling for 2023

With the regular season kicking off Thursday, we're dusting off our earlier guides on the ceilings and floors of each team in the NFL.

Here's what we said about Houston back in June. Let's examine what's changed:

Ceiling: 8-9 (originally 7-10)

Despite starting a rookie quarterback with perhaps the worst group of receivers in the NFL, the Texans should be markedly better than last year. Houston was all over the board last season, losing six games by one score and seven games by 10 or more points. More consistent guidance/leadership from head coach DeMeco Ryans and just a better roster from top to bottom should help even things out a bit.

The Texans defense is much improved after adding edge-rusher Will Anderson, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, linebackers Denzel Perryman and Henry To’oTo’o and cornerback Jimmie Ward, which should keep them in more games in 2023. 

With Stroud’s dual-threat ability, Dameon Pierce eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark (he had 939 last year), and the possibility of two really good young receivers breaking out in John Metchie and Tank Dell, adding another win along the way doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility if the stars perfectly align.

Floor: 4-13 (originally 4-13)

Looking at the Texans’ schedule, it’s hard to say there are not at least four winnable games on there (Arizona, Atlanta, Indianapolis twice, Tampa Bay), if not more. While the Jaguars are the AFC South front-runner, the Texans did beat them last year, as well as the Titans, who could be competing for the division title this year. A win over one or both this year wouldn’t be completely surprising.

Houston’s offense and defense — on paper — both appear to be improved and if the team won three games last year with the 31st-ranked offense and 30th-ranked defense, finding another win somewhere in there shouldn’t be too difficult.