Houston Texans Rookie Receives Bleak Career Prediction

In last month's draft, the Houston Texans managed to pick up a variety of appealing talents on both sides of the ball, even without taking a swing on any rookie within the initial 32 selections of the first round.

But while the Texans did a nice job with their talent acquisition in landing potential year one impact players in the mix around day two and three, there could be one rookie Houston took a flier on who may have the odds stacked against him not just in his first season, but within his entire situation: Florida quarterback Graham Mertz.

Pro Football Focus analyst Dalton Wasserman broke down the reality of Mertz's situation in Houston compared to the other rookie quarterbacks selected in his respective class. In the end, Mertz ended up falling to the worst-ranked situation of any signal caller taken this year at 12, not only because of the names ahead of him in the depth chart, but because of offensive line concerns as well.

"Mertz enters the season as Houston’s third-string quarterback behind C.J. Stroud and Davis Mills. While he poses no immediate threat to Stroud, Mills is in the final year of his contract, opening a potential path to the backup role in the future. The bigger concern is pass protection — a recurring issue in which is especially problematic for a stationary quarterback like Mertz, who missed part of the 2024 season due to injury."

Mertz enters Houston with a shot to be the long-term backup behind C.J. Stroud in this offense, but likely emerges as the QB3 on the depth chart for his first year in the fold, allowing him to continue his development as Davis Mills handles backup duties in the meantime.

Compared to the other signal callers in the class, Mertz's ceiling does tend to be a bit capped, but the eyebrows really begin to be raised around how well this Texans line upfront can protect whoever it may be under center, whether it be the Florida product or Stroud. It's a unit that's seen its fair share of improvements in recent weeks, but the questions still linger on whether this pass protection can hold up for the long haul.

If the Texans can protect Mertz if and when he hits the field, he has the necessary experience and arm talent to be a serviceable backup at the next level. But if that protection proves to be shakier than expected, things could unravel quickly.