How Ben Johnson might be missing a major analytics opportunity

Laughing ensued but one thing Johnson does like is the analytical statistic EPA, or expected points added.

"The way I understand it right now from our analytics team, that EPA in the passing game is really one of the most critical factors in determining wins and losses,” Johnson told reporters at the owners meetings. "That’s probably changed over the last five years or so. I would have said five years ago turnovers, takeaways, that was No. 1. From what I understand now, that EPA for the passing game has now surpassed that.”

Yet, by not being interested in the tush push or quarterback sneaks, Johnson is expressing lack of interest in a play that means higher EPA.

It's an extremely high EPA play, at least according to Ben Linsey's analysis for Pro Football Focus of possibly the game's most controversial play.

Over the last four years since the Eagles began running QB sneaks and the tush push, their total EPA for those is just below 80. No one else in the league has an EPA on QB sneaks in the 40s.

The Bears have actually been one of the more effective at executing QB sneaks in the last four years when they run one, but not in EPA per sneak.

Philadelphia ran 145 QB sneaks since 2021, almost double the next most (77) by the Bills.

"And quarterback sneaks typically result in positive EPA, given that it’s a high conversion rate play and that a successful quarterback sneak typically results in a new set of downs or a touchdown," Linsey wrote. "The average expected points added of a quarterback sneak (tush push variety or not) in the NFL since 2021 is 0.25."

PFF separated sneaks into categories, as well. The Eagles had 82 sneaks with the running back or fullback at a depth of 3 yards or less, which essentially describes their formation for the tush push. They converted 83% (68). The Bears have actually coverted 78% in that category, fourth in the league since 2021. However, they only did it nine times and converted seven. Almost none were actual tush push plays.

This study draws conclusions about the play suggesting it's not really evident the Eagles gain a huge edge by executing their sneaks this way. For that, Linsey needs to put away his calculator and watch the film because the play is devastating to defenses. It's obvious in their frustration at trying to stop it.

This might not be apparent in analytics but to the naked eye it is.

And because it does rate high for EPA, as well, the Bears and Johnson need to be serious about executing this play.

The real key is having a center and two guards who can get down lower and execute, then a QB who can run the sneak. There's no doubt the Bears brought in a center and two guards this offseason who can do it with Drew Dalman, Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney.

Maybe Johnson should start to become a tush push guy.