How Buccaneers can beat Bills in Week 11

Coming off a tough loss to the Patriots last week, things don’t get easier from here for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A November trip to Buffalo to take on the 6-3 Bills is next on the docket 

This is not going to be an easy game for the Bucs as they take on the current reigning MVP, Josh Allen. The Bills quarterback is turning in another MVP-type performance this season and is once again doing it through the air and with his legs.

Allen presents a major problem for the Bucs on Sunday, who must get pressure on him without losing containment where he can rip off a big play at any time. Shutting him and James Cook down in the running game will be priority No. 1 for the Bucs this week if they want a chance to come away with a win.

Offensively, the Bucs just need to execute. Pride and accountability were the words preached this week throughout the Buccaneers locker room, and it starts up front.

The offensive line must do a better job of protecting Baker Mayfield and opening lanes up in the running game. Receivers must do a better job of separating from coverage. Mayfield has to do a better job of getting through his reads and accurately delivering well-placed balls to his receivers. Josh Grizzard has to do a better job of figuring out what works and getting to it quicker. If these things get turned around, the Bucs will be in a much better position to win games going forward.

I didn’t expect the Buccaneers to win this game coming into the season, and it’s hard to turn that around right now, given all the injuries that have decimated this team. But there is a path to victory, and if the Bucs follow these keys to cannon fire, they’ll come back to Tampa Bay with a win.

Establish the ground game

Run the ball. If there were ever a game to get the Bucs' running game back on track, it’s this week against the Bills. Buffalo’s defense has been susceptible to the run game all season long, currently ranking 30th in the league, allowing 147.3 yards per game. Establishing a ground game and utilizing play action to attack the middle of the field must be a major part of the game plan. 

A healthy dose of Sean Tucker should be in order as Rachaad White slides into more of a third-down role, where he can be a factor in the passing game. The Bucs haven’t run much of their “pony package” this year, but should employ it this week, utilizing both backs in the run and passing game. 

Tucker led the Bucs in rushing last week with 53 yards, becoming the first back to rush for over 50 yards against the Patriots' top-ranked run defense all season. With Bucky Irving still sidelined due to injury, someone has to step up, and Tucker needs to be that guy on Sunday.

Limit explosive plays on defense 

For the most part, the Bucs have been fairly solid in this area outside of a Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs big play. However, against the Patriots, the Bucs allowed four plays of 54 yards or more, three for touchdowns. Outside of those plays, though, the Bucs defense played pretty sound football against New England.

Tampa Bay‘s defense has traditionally been a bend, but don’t break kind of defense. They don’t allow explosive plays to beat them, which makes last week so uncharacteristic of a Todd Bowles defense. Unfortunately, the Buffalo Bills lead the NFL in explosive plays through Week 10 with 78, putting extra emphasis on this area of defense this week.

Convert on third down

I can’t make it any simpler than that. The Bucs have to flip their third-down conversion rate in their favor. In their last three games, they’ve gone 5-13, 3-13 and 4-16 on the critical down. Those types of results on Sunday won’t get the job done against Buffalo. 

However, if they can establish a ground game, they’ll likely be in third-and-short situations rather than third-and-long, which should increase their chances of converting. The ability to use play action off of an effective rushing attack will also allow them to potentially take advantage of soft spots in the middle of the field. They’re big ifs, but to have success on third down this week, the Bucs will need to find success on the ground.