After going 1-2 in the preseason, the Dallas Cowboys will open the regular season as underdogs against the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. If they do the following, it’s a winnable game.
The Browns gave up a league-low 270.2 yards per game last year, but according to Fox Sports, Cleveland had the NFL’s worst red zone defense, allowing a touchdown 71.4% of the time. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott threw 27 touchdowns from inside the opponent’s 20-yard line in 2023, where former Cowboys running back Tony Pollard also had five rushing scores.
With Pollard now in Tennessee, players like Ezekiel Elliott must pick up the slack. Both of Dowdle’s two career touchdowns came from the inside red zone, as did all three of Elliott’s scores with the Patriots last season.
The Cowboys have little chance of moving the ball if they can’t connect on early downs. In addition to having the league’s top passing defense, Cleveland led the NFL in third down league last season, shutting down opponents on 70.9% of drives.
Prescott had a respectable 116.7 quarterback rating with 1,409 yards and 11 touchdowns on third down last year, but five of those scores went to wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who could be rusty after missing all of training camp before signing a four-year, $136M deal in late August.
While Lamb was busy leading NFL receivers with 135 receptions last year, the former first-round pick quietly had a breakout season with 71 catches for 761 yards and five touchdowns and finished the season with 10 catches for 93 yards and three touchdowns against Green Bay in the NFC wild-card game.
Jake Ferguson's third TD + a 2 PT makes this a two-possession game
— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2024
: #GBvsDAL on FOX
: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Ut3BRhC2CE pic.twitter.com/Tlw3IVnLRa
With No. 3 receiver Michael Gallup no longer with the team, Ferguson should see even more targets in 2024. He played 74% of the team’s offensive snaps last season, and he’ll need to play even more if the Cowboys hope to beat the Browns in Week 1.
Dallas tied for the third-best turnover differential last season (+10), while Cleveland gave up the ball a league-high 37 times for a -9 turnover differential. Of course, the Browns relied on backup quarterbacks like Joe Flacco, PJ Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson for most of the year but finally have Deshaun Watson back from a shoulder injury that cost him 11 games in 2023.
Watson still had four interceptions and two fumbles in six starts in 2023 and, with no snaps taken in preseason games, could have trouble protecting the ball against a Dallas team with 17 interceptions last year.
The Cowboys and Browns will meet in Cleveland on Sunday, Sept. 8 at 4:25 p.m. ET.
More must-reads:
Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!