How Do the Buffalo Bills Break Through?

He has the arm talent — the combination to launch rockets and zip a throw into a closing defender. 

Allen was top three in tight-window throws (15) that went at least ten yards. Sixty percent of these throws went at least 20 yards, which led the league.

Allen has gone through different growing pains — from spreading the wealth to cutting down turnovers (career low six interceptions in 2024) and diversifying the run game, where he does not need to be relied on as much.

Buffalo has yet to earn home field advantage in the Allen era and they are overdue for the No. 1 seed.

Last season, James Cook was tied for the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL (16, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs). 

Cook was in a staring contest with the Bills front office, seeking to negotiate his contract before eventually agreeing to a four-year, $48 million extension. 

Buffalo’s pass catching group was by committee. 

Second-year pro Keon Coleman has the potential to emerge as Allen’s go-to target. Coleman was 13th in yards per target in his rookie season last year.

Coleman, lined up at the bottom of the screen in the clip above, runs a concept route to beat the defense. He starts in a crossing route that turns into a post corner against a cover one defense — one deep free safety. Allen places the ball on the money for a 25-yard touchdown.

Coleman is a prime candidate to have a breakout season.

Led by four-time Pro Bowler Dion Dawkins, Buffalo has one of the top offensive lines in football. 

Buffalo has an elite offense that set the franchise record for points scored (525) in a regular season.

They’ve proven they have the personnel, now it’s just about Coleman actualizing his breakout potential and the offense making two or three critical plays in the playoffs.

Defense Needs to Rise When It Matters Most

The Bills’ defense took the ball away 32 times in 2024, the second highest total in the league. They were 12th in run defense (115.5 yards per game).

They invested more in their defense in the draft. In the second and third rounds, respectively, Buffalo drafted defensive tackle TJ Sanders (South Carolina), and Landon Jackson (Arkansas), both of whom could be rotational players on the defensive line. 

Defensive end Greg Rousseau has been a key contributor on the Bills defensive unit.

On the left side of the screen, Rousseau is lined up in a wide-nine technique — placed outside the left tackle.

In this technique, he has leverage to contain runs outside. Here, he shows a fantastic first step to evade the left tackle and blow up the run play inside.

Buffalo primarily plays zone coverage. Up until last year, zone coverage has been their demise, as Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow carved them up in the postseason.

In their latest playoff matchup against Mahomes, Buffalo switched to man coverage, but still continuously got torched. 

Buffalo is bound to run into Kansas City come playoff time. 

Take it for what’s worth, but Buffalo added the veteran Joey Bosa. The former Los Angeles Charger has played the Chiefs twice a year for his whole career. Buffalo also reunited with Tre’Davious White, a former All-Pro selection that has had an injury history.

Special teams

Kicker Tyler Bass returns for year five. He nailed his career-high last year – from 61 yards out.

You’d think any Bills fan would trade that stat for him tying the game late in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs in the 2023 Divisional Round.

Brandon Codrington is their primary kick and punt returner. He accumulated just over 600 return yards and was selected to the All-Rookie team by the Pro Football Writers of America. 

For Buffalo, it’s about chasing down the elusive Super Bowl.

Buffalo is just waiting to get to the final two minutes of a playoff game in January to either sink or swim – again.

We’re Talkin’ Bout Playoffs

“You never want to build your team to beat one team because you never really know it’s going to be them every year,” head coach Sean McDermott said after last year’s AFC title game loss to Kansas City.

Well, Buffalo’s playoff exits have said otherwise.

Kansas City doesn’t completely own them — Buffalo has won four straight regular season matchups. Kansas City just has Buffalo’s number in the postseason.

In their regular season matchup this upcoming season versus Kansas City, they could consider going away from their usual schemes to not give the Chiefs something on film. Buffalo could also try throwing a mix of man and zone coverages. Mahomes is the last quarterback teams want to blitz; and perhaps Buffalo’s last solution is to send all out pressure. 

If the Bills lose their Week 9 matchup against the Chiefs, there shouldn’t be a huge reaction because it’s all about the postseason matchup.

Buffalo isn’t breaking through in the regular season; they can only do that in the playoffs.