How ESPN Analyst Views Chiefs Game-by-Game Win Probabilities

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the winningest franchise that the National Football League has seen since the 2020 campaign. Winning three Super Bowl championships since the turn of the decade, the Chiefs have made themselves prime contenders each season.

Going into the new campaign off their Super Bowl LIX loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Chiefs have some competition that they must defeat if they wish to punch their ticket to the playoffs once again. Even coming off a 15-2 campaign in 2024, the Chiefs have already been doubted before the first whistle of the new year.

The Chiefs begin their 2025 season in Sao Paulo, Brazil, against their divisional rivals, the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers and Chiefs are set to square off twice this season, much like the Chiefs will do against their other divisional opponents. But ahead of the season, what do the win probabilities look like for each week?

According to ESPN analyst Mike Clay's recent projections for all 32 NFL franchises, the Chiefs should be in the ballpark to collect around 10 victories, five shy of tying 2024's win total. While the Chiefs have proven their adversity over the years, here is how Clay views the Chiefs' chances of winning each week of the season.

Week 1 vs Chargers: 60% win probability

The Chiefs have fared well against the Chargers in their recent combat, which makes all the more sense as to why Clay has the Chiefs with the upper hand to begin the season.

Week 2 vs Eagles: 49% win probability

The Eagles and Chiefs Super Bowl rematch is set for Week 2, and even though the Chiefs will host the game at Arrowhead, the reigning Super Bowl champions have a slight edge in the mind of Clay.

Week 3 vs Giants: 64% win probability

The Chiefs-Giants matchup will be the first time the two franchises have faced off since 2021. Seeing that the Giants are in full rebuild mode and the Chiefs are trying to capitalize on their championship window, Clay sees the Chiefs taking this game.

Week 4 vs Ravens: 39% win probability

Clay seems to be a big believer in what Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens can do this season, marking Week 4 as heavily rooting against Kansas City.

Week 5 vs Jaguars: 68% win probability

If the Chiefs do drop Week 4, Clay believes the bounce back will come the week that follows, as Jacksonville hosts Kansas City.

Week 6 vs Lions: 42% win probability

The Detroit Lions and the Chiefs square off in Week 6 for the first time since the Lions defeated the Chiefs back in 2023. However, for the Chiefs, Clay is leaning towards their downfall in his win probability projection.

Week 7 vs Raiders: 76% win probability

This is the biggest win probability up to this point in the projections. The Chiefs have fared well against the Raiders in recent seasons, which may be the cause for Clay's win probability for Kansas City being so high.

Week 8 vs Commanders: 61% win probability

In a game that could have been the Super Bowl LIX matchup, Clay favors the Chiefs in Week 8.

Week 9 vs Bills: 37% win probability

The Bills and Chiefs game is always a must-watch, but the regular season trend of the Bills defeating the Chiefs continues, according to Clay.

Week 11 vs Broncos: 50% win probability

This marks the only 50/50 game for the Chiefs on Clay's projection list.

The Chiefs are favored in each game from Week 11 on. Check out the rest of the probabilities below.

Week 12 vs Colts: 68% win probability

Week 13 vs Cowboys: 58% win probability

Week 14 vs Texans: 58% win probability

Week 15 vs Chargers: 64% win probability

Week 16 vs Titans: 71% win probability

Week 17 vs Broncos: 58% win probability

Week 18 vs Raiders: 68% win probability

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