How Losing Waller Could Change the Dolphins Offense

As if things couldn’t get worse for the Miami Dolphins, one of their few bright spots on offense this season is heading to injured reserve, and it could take away one of the team’s most successful packages. 

Darren Waller was placed on IR on Wednesday after suffering a pectoral injury against the Cleveland Browns. Tight end Greg Dulcich was promoted from the practice squad, and the team brought back Chris Myarick for his third stint in Miami. 

Waller played in just four games after dealing with a groin injury early in the season, but he made an impact in that time. He had 10 catches on 12 targets for 117 yards and four touchdowns. 

It felt like the Dolphins were on to something with Waller, so the question becomes, where do they go from here? 

Waller Opened Up Different Personnel Packages

During the Mike McDaniel era, the Dolphins have majored in 11 personnel packages (one back, one tight end). This season, roughly 49 percent of the team’s snaps have come from that look, according to PFF. 

During the first three weeks of the season, when Waller wasn’t playing, that number was roughly 57 percent. 

If you’ve followed my work for the past few years, you know I think this is one of the biggest structural problems the Dolphins have — they’re predictable and lack versatility. 

Well, that started to change a bit when Waller returned to the lineup against the Jets in Week 4. The Dolphins began incorporating more 12- and 22-personnel looks, meaning multiple tight ends on the field. 

Of the Dolphins’ 36 plays from 22 personnel, 33 have come since Week 4. In the same time period, Miami has also run 20 of its 25 plays from 12 personnel. 

This allowed the Dolphins to show teams a different formation and threaten to run the ball. Whether teams believed the Dolphins would do it or not, they have to respect a look that includes so many big bodies. 

Although it still wasn’t a huge part of Miami’s offense, it was wildly successful. The Dolphins' success rate from 12- and 22-personnel is 41 percent, and their EPA per dropback was 0.32. 

The Dolphins are averaging seven yards per play from those looks, and Tua has completed 75 percent of his passes. It’s been a small but successful part of the offense, and Waller’s presence is a huge reason why. 

Adapting to Life Without Waller 

Without Waller, the Dolphins now have a decision to make. 

Do they want to try another tight end in his role for these looks? Or do they want to scrap the packages altogether? History tells us the Dolphins will do the latter. 

The team’s Week 1 loss to the Colts is an excellent case study as to why it doesn’t seem likely Miami will continue leaning into these looks. Against Indianapolis, the Dolphins ran roughly 15 percent of snaps from 12 and 22. 

That’s a high number for the McDaniel era, and the team leaned on Tanner Conner with Waller injured. It was a worthwhile experiment, but it didn’t end well — Conner struggled mightily, especially in the running game. 

Blocking isn’t Waller’s strength, either, but he’s a significantly more dynamic receiver than Conner, so it’s worth the trade-off. 

In Weeks 2 and 3, the Dolphins' 12 and 22 usage dipped to below two percent, including not taking a single snap from those formations against the Bills. 

You would be right to point out that Miami’s two-tight-end usage stayed high after Waller was injured against the Browns. 

However, there’s a difference between dropping a critical part of the game plan during a game and having a whole week to draw up a new one. That’s where Miami sits before playing Atlanta this weekend. 

All of this doesn’t even mention the potential impact of the team’s red zone offense. All four of Waller’s touchdowns came inside the 10-yard line, as he gave the team a tall, athletic threat in tight spaces. 

We’d argue someone like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine could help in that area (he did it a lot in Tennessee), but it’s clear the Dolphins don’t view him in that way. 

We’d also argue that Dulcich deserves a chance to work in the two-tight-end packages before the Dolphins consider removing them from the offense. 

However, that hasn’t been Miami’s process under McDaniel. Pushing any structural changes to the offense has been like pulling teeth, and now that the catalyst for one of those changes is out, it’s hard to see the Dolphins sticking with it.