Oct 13, 2024; London, United Kingdom; Large helmets of the Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos of the AFC West before an NFL International Series game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

How the AFC West Could Come Down to the Wire

Originally posted on Kansas City Chiefs on SI
By Dominic Minchella | Last updated Aug 30, 2025 2:00 PM ET

The AFC West division is arguably the most stacked in the National Football League heading into the 2025 campaign. The Kansas City Chiefs look to hold off three division rivals, two of which were playoff teams last year, in an attempt to win 10 straight division titles.

The Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers all made the playoffs last season, with Kansas City finding its way to its third consecutive Super Bowl. The Chiefs are still the team to beat in the division, let alone the entire AFC, as the reigning champions have something to prove and everything to lose this season.

When it comes down to division competition, though, the Chiefs need to replicate the success they had last season if they want to go into the playoffs as division winners. Only losing one division game last year, which came in an uncompetitive Week 18 game to the Broncos, is a tall task to repeat, but it's doable.

So much so, Pro Football Network's Bjorn Bergstrom created a breakdown of the AFC West's 2025 NFL Season, and similar to last season, it seems like it will be a three-headed race to the top of the division this season.

Bergstrom listed the Las Vegas Raiders finishing in last place with a projected record of 7.4-9.6. The Raiders, under new management, have some pieces to compete better than they did last season, but when looking at the rest of the division, they are still the franchise with a long way to go to win the division.

Below is how Bergstrom sees the division going for the remaining three franchises.

3rd Place: Los Angeles Chargers

Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.2-7.8

Division Win Probability: 23.9%

Playoff Probability: 55.5%

Super Bowl Probability: 3.5%

2nd Place: Denver Broncos

Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.6-7.4

Division Win Probability: 31.1%

Playoff Probability: 63.7%

Super Bowl Probability: 5.0%

1st Place: Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.0-7.0

Division Win Probability: 38.5%

Playoff Probability: 70.7%

Super Bowl Probability: 7.7%

"While the quartet of head coach Andy Reid, quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, and kicker Harrison Butker has been highly reliable in the clutch in seasons past, it’s inevitable for them to drop at least a couple of one-score games in 2025," Bergstrom wrote.

This article first appeared on Kansas City Chiefs on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: