How Trent Williams Coulde Change the 49ers' Draft Plans

The 49ers and Trent Williams are yet again playing a game of chicken. Williams is undefeated in this matchup, getting everything he wanted by waiting out the Niners. With a shift in power away from Kyle Shanahan and toward Paraag Marathe, the dynamic has changed. This time, the Niners may not be willing to meet Williams’ demands.

If Williams asks for everything with no compromise, as he has always done, I think he’ll be traded this time. If he is willing to work with the team to an extent, he’ll stay. Williams drives the outcome.

Given that Williams knows other teams will probably meet his asking price, I don’t expect him to compromise. Jason LaCanfora reports that the sides remain far apart in contract talks. That would ultimately shift to an internal debate, with Shanahan arguing to keep Williams and Marathe saying he has to go. In that case, Jed York makes the final call.

If a deal can’t be reached, then what?

Trading Williams is not as easy as it sounds due to his contract. At this stage of free agency, few teams have the cap room to take on Williams. Kansas City has shown the most interest but lacks the cap room. New England has the space to make a deal, though the Chiefs, Detroit or Houston could decide to acquire him and work out the cap implications.

Because Williams would require an extension, teams are unlikely to offer more than a 3rd round pick in exchange.

Free agency

There is one viable option remaining in free agency, Detroit’s Taylor Decker, a ten-year veteran left tackle. PFF ranked him 41st overall at tackle out of 89, 45th in pass pro and 57th in run blocking. The numbers are middle of the pack, but likely represent the smallest drop-off from Williams, compared to drafting a rookie.

Given that Decker has yet to sign, he has a number in mind that the market won’t pay, and contract negotiations could be difficult. However, his price would be far cheaper than what Williams is demanding. Decker will be 32 next season.

In-house

The Niners could decide to flip their line, moving Colton McKivitz and Dominic Puni to the left side. McKivitz has elevated his game in recent years, helped by having Puni next to him. Therefore, it makes sense to keep that pairing intact and move both over. In addition, most of the talent in the first round is at right tackle, not left. Puni played left guard at Kansas.

The draft

Losing Williams would shake up the 49ers' draft plans. I believe at the moment they are locked in on taking an edge and a wide receiver with their first two picks, likely in that order.

If tackle suddenly becomes the pick at 27, an edge or WR would have to be pushed back to the 3rd round slot from a Williams deal, something the team doesn’t want. To avoid that, signing Decker may be a more attractive option than anticipated.

If the replacement is a draft pick, taking one in the first may be forced upon them. Draft analyst Dane Brugler of The Athletic says there is a “massive drop-off” from the seven tackles expected to go in the first round to the next tier down.

The pick at 27

Tackles projected to go well before 27 include Francis Mauigoa of Miami, Utah’s Spencer Fano, and Georgia’s Monroe Freeling. Tackles in the twenties before the Niner pick likely include Kadyn Proctor of Alabama and Blake Miller of Clemson. Proctor doesn’t fit the body type Shanahan prefers, but he has guard/tackle versatility. Miller is a right tackle only, with a game eerily similar to Mike McGlinchey.

Then there were two. Caleb Lomu of Utah is a left tackle that the Niners haven’t shown an interest in. Lomu is 6-6/313; he has the speed the Niners covet at 4.99/1.74 but lacks power. He’s more of a guardrail than a bulldozer in the run game.

That leaves the likely pick, Max Iheanachor of Arizona State, 6-6/325, 34 ½ inch arms, a wingspan over 83, 4.91/1.73 speed, he gave up 14 pressures and no sacks.

Iheanachor is a project; he’s from Nigeria and has only played football since junior college. He played well at the Senior Bowl, held his own against the great edges from Texas Tech, and can be a violent finisher in the run game. He plays with too high a pad level, and needs a lot of technical work.

He was a quick learner at Mobile, and has the physical traits to be the best left tackle in the class, eventually.

In the later rounds, technician Caleb Tiernan of Northwestern lacks power. Notre Dame’s Aamil Wagner has speed but also lacks the power to sustain blocks and can lose to speed. Enrique Cruz Jr. of Kansas has 4.93 speed but lacks power and may have to move to guard.

Isaiah World of Oregon is coming off a torn ACL in the college playoffs. He has good feet but plays too high and can struggle to anchor, he got worked against Penn State. Jude Bowry of Boston College had a bad week in Mobile, beaten by speed, power and technique, leaving some to wonder if he should move inside.

The Niners are reportedly interested in Travis Burke of Memphis, a 6-9/325 ball of clay, but get in line; he’s been a popular target throughout the league.

Given all that, if the Niners turn to the draft for a new tackle, Iheanachor at 27 is the clear choice in talent and upside.

Shanahan and John Lynch are typically locked into targets before the draft. If they’ve fallen in love with specific receivers and edges, then maybe signing Decker will be a consideration. In the past, they haven’t shown the creativity or the desire to sign a tackle.

Things can definitely change, and I’ve gone back and forth on this a lot, but for now, given the Niners declined the $10 million roster bonus, and that Williams has never compromised yet, I’d expect him to be traded, for McKivitz and Puni to move left, and for the Niners to draft Iheanachor in the 1st and a guard in the 4th.