How Will Dolphins Fare in Rest Differential This Year?

The Miami Dolphins’ full schedule will be released Wednesday night, and one of the most important things the players and coaches will be looking at is short weeks. 

How often the team will not have a whole week to rest and prepare for games is more important than when teams are playing, especially considering we already know every team Miami will play this season. 

A recent study by Nerding on NFL on Twitter (X) indicates that there might be a correlation between how often the Dolphins are forced to play on a short week and making the playoffs. 

Although the study goes back to 2002, the most pertinent information for Dolphins fans is Miami’s numbers from the past few seasons, specifically the last three under Coach Mike McDaniel. In 2022 and 2023, the team finished with a positive 7 and 6 Rest Day Differential, respectively. 

The Dolphins made the playoffs in both of those seasons, as they had a minimal number of short weeks. The 2023 season included zero Thursday games, with the only short weeks being a Friday game in Week 12 and a Monday game in Week 14. 

The 2022 season included a Thursday night game in Week 4 — the one in which Tua Tagovailoa had to be taken to the hospital after suffering a concussion — and a Saturday night game against the Bills in Week 15.

That’s a stark contrast to what the Dolphins dealt with last season. The team had two Thursday night games in Week 2 and Week 13, along with two Monday night games in Week 4 and Week 11.  

Even if you want to expand past the McDaniel era, the Dolphins finished with a positive 11 Rest Day Differential in 2016, the last time the team made the playoffs before McDaniel took over. That season, Miami played in one Thursday night game and two Saturday games. 

After 2016, the Dolphins did not have a positive Rest Day Differential from 2017 through 2021. 

Obviously, there are a million factors that determine whether a team makes the playoffs. On-field play, personnel decisions, and coaching are far more critical to success, but it’s also fair to point out that a more well-rested team likely will play better. 

The Dolphins’ negative 22 Rest Day Differential over the past 23 seasons is ranked 26th (seventh-worst) in the NFL. However, they actually rank better than the Eagles, Bills and Buccaneers, three teams that have had much more success than Miami recently. 

Dolphins’ Recent History on Short Weeks 

While the study only covers the number of rest days each team had, it does not cover how each team performed when forced to play on a short week. 

During the past five years, the Dolphins are 7-5 on a short week and just 5-7 on a long week (excluding byes). That would go against the notion that " a more well-rested team will play better.” 

Last season, the Dolphins were 2-2 in both categories. It should be noted that two of the team’s losses after a long week came without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa: Week 3 against the Seahawks (long week, following Thursday game vs. Buffalo) and Week 4 in the Monday night game against the Tennessee Titans (long week, following Seahawks game). 

Miami’s two short-week losses came against good opponents on Thursday. The team was blown out at home by Buffalo in Week 2, the game where Tagovailoa got injured, causing him to miss the contests mentioned above. The other came Thanksgiving night against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. 

Miami’s wins on short weeks came agains the Patriots in Week 6 and the Raiders in Week 11, as both games followed Monday night matchups. 

While we don’t know how many short weeks the Dolphins will have in 2025, recent history indicates it might be one of many factors for whether Miami makes the playoffs. 

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