Huge (And Expensive) Deadline Looming for Packers

The 2026 NFL Draft will conclude on Saturday, April 25. The following Friday, which is May 1, looms a critical deadline for the Green Bay Packers.

That’s when general manager Brian Gutekunst must decide on the fifth-year option for 2023 first-round pick Lukas Van Ness.

If he picks up the option, Van Ness will be under contract for the 2027 season. If not, Van Ness will play this season on an expiring contract.

It’ll be an expensive decision for Gutekunst. The option comes at four price tags based on position. As outlined by OverTheCap.com:

A player selected to multiple Pro Bowls (on the original ballot and not as an injury replacement) during his first three seasons would receive about $26.9 million. That’s the price of the franchise tag.

A player selected to one Pro Bowl (again, on the original ballot) would receive about $21.9 million. That’s the price of the transition tag.

A player who plays 75 percent of the snaps in two of his first three seasons, an average of 75 percent over those three seasons or at least 50 percent of the snaps in each of those three seasons would get about $15.1 million. That’s the average salary of the players ranked third through 20th at his position over the past five seasons.

Van Ness didn’t hit any of those thresholds. Not even close. So, he’d get a base salary of $13.752 million.

It will be a complicated decision and might require more projection than expected for a player with three years of NFL experience.

Is Lukas Van Ness a Bust?

Van Ness, who wasn’t a starter at Iowa, hasn’t been a starter for the Packers, either. He started the first two games of his career last season, when a foot injury sidelined him for eight games. The 13th overall selection of the 2023 draft ranks 16th in the draft class with 8.5 sacks.

Van Ness was the fourth front-seven defender off the board in 2023. From that group, he ranks:

• 30th with 1,056 snaps.

• 16th (tied) with 8.5 sacks.

• 14th with 17 tackles for losses.

• 17th (tied) with 23 quarterback hits.

• 15th (tied) with 34 quarterback pressures.

• 23rd (tied) with one forced fumble.

• 21st (tied) with one pass deflection.

• 27th with 84 tackles.

Rather than a step forward, Van Ness has gone from four sacks, eight tackles for losses and 10 quarterback hits in 17 games as a rookie in 2023 to three sacks, six tackles for losses and six quarterback hits in 17 games in 2024 to 1.5 sacks, three tackles for losses and seven quarterback hits in nine games in 2025.

Van Ness played 33 percent of the defensive snaps in 2023, 39 percent in 2024 and 23 percent in 2025.

Added together, that’s not nearly enough for the player selected after the Packers moved up from 15th to 13th in the Aaron Rodgers trade.

Or, Is the Arrow Pointed Up?

On the other hand, there were some enticing signs last season.

In limited action because of the foot injury sustained when he sacked Joe Flacco in the Cincinnati game, Van Ness received 151 pass-rushing opportunities. There were 109 edge defenders who hit that number. According to Pro Football Focus, Van Ness ranked 28th in pass-rush win rate and 21st in pass-rush productivity, a PFF metric that counts sacks, hits and hurries per pass-rushing snap.

He finally returned to action against Denver in Week 15, the game in which Micah Parsons suffered a torn ACL. During his final three games – Week 16 at Chicago, Week 17 against Baltimore and the playoffs against Chicago – Van Ness had 10 pressures.

For the season, the run defense was 0.36 yards better and the pass defense was 0.28 yards better when he was on the field compared to when he was not, according to league data.

It wasn’t great production, but it was promising.

Packers Will Need Him

Regardless of the decision on the option, the Packers will need Van Ness in a big way in 2026.

The offseason trade of Rashan Gary, the free-agent departure of Kingsley Enagbare and the presumptive season-opening absence of Micah Parsons not only means the path is clear for Van Ness to be a Week 1 starter, but for Van Ness to be the on-field leader of a group that, at the moment, is steeped in questions.

The Packers haven’t added to the group this offseason, meaning Van Ness could step onto the field in Week 1 lined up with Barryn Sorrell, Collin Oliver and Brenton Cox.

Had Van Ness been an immediate sensation, the Packers might not have traded for Parsons. In 2026 following the trade of Gary, Parsons and Van Ness are expected to be the starters.

Parsons quickly gravitated toward Van Ness after the trade, and spoke highly of him last season. Before the game at Lambeau Field against the Bears, Parsons was asked about Julius Peppers, who starred for Chicago and Green Bay. He used the question to talk about Van Ness.

“J.P., obviously, he’s a freak,” Parsons told Packers On SI at the time. “He’s one of the best, Hall of Famer, one of the GOATs. That’s kind of who I’m trying to get Van Ness to turn into with those freakish long arms and his power and what he did. Julius, he’s one of the great ones, and if you can get anybody to play the way he did, we’re going to have a lot of success.”

A day later, Van Ness said: “We’ve had a lot of conversations about the different body types of players that we can replicate and watch. …

“I grew up in the Chicago area, so he was someone that I looked up to and, obviously, when I got drafted here and seeing that he was playing here, as well, that’s a pretty good player to replicate. So, I definitely watch his tape and I definitely see some similarities in the way that we play – a physical, run-you-over, power-type game.”