Imagining the return on Jonathan Taylor trade for Colts

The Indianapolis Colts reportedly gave star running back Jonathan Taylor permission to seek a trade this week, and now the question becomes what that trade will look like assuming it gets completed.

The league has already established that running back is not a position teams are going to pay top dollar for on the free-agent market or when it comes to re-signing young stars. 

But now the Colts, who do not seem willing to pay Taylor what he wants financially, are in a position where they are going to ask for peak value back in return for a trade.

They value him enough to want premium assets, but not enough to pay him. Quite an interesting spot to be in.

We can try to use history as a guide for what a trade might look like, but there are not many comparable trades in the modern era. 

For starters, Taylor is one of the best running backs in the league and still in the prime of his career. In three years, he has rushed for 3,841 yards, already led the league one time and has scored 36 touchdowns. He is an elite player at his position.

The closest comparable is probably when the Carolina Panthers dealt Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers at the 2022 trade deadline. The 49ers gave up four draft picks over two years in a package that included a second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-round pick. McCaffrey was a couple of years older at the time of his trade and had been coming off two injury-shortened seasons, but he is one of the only other top-tier running backs to be moved in recent years. 

The Colts might be looking at a deal very similar to that. 

The other big running back to move over the past year was D'Andre Swift, who went from Detroit to Philadelphia this offseason. Swift isn't quite on the same level as Taylor or McCaffrey but is still only 23 years old and has flashed big-play potential over his first three years. The Eagles gave up two draft picks (a fourth- and a seventh-rounder) to get him. 

When it comes to player compensation as opposed to draft picks, the two most notable deals over the past decade involving top-tier running backs were centered around David Johnson and LeSean McCoy.

In March 2020, the Texans acquired David Johnson, a second-round pick and a fourth-round pick from the Arizona Cardinals, but had to give up wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth-round pick of their own to get him. It was, at the time, regarded as a complete blunder by the Texans because Johnson was seen as being on the decline. 

Before the 2015 season, the Bills acquired McCoy from the Eagles in a one-for-one swap involving linebacker Kiko Alonso. McCoy was a star and one of the best backs in the league, while Alonso had one year under his belt where he was a runner-up for the NFL's Defensive Rookie of the Year. 

Even though top-tier running backs do not get the contracts they want on the open market, they can still bring strong returns in a trade if they are good enough. The Colts should be looking at a McCaffrey-type deal if and when they get Taylor dealt.