Feb 9, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie (22) and Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (88) battle for position as they look for the ball in the first quarter in Super Bowl LIX at Ceasars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Initial Football Power Index Lists 2 Familiar Teams at Top

Originally posted on Kansas City Chiefs on SI
By Zak Gilbert | Last updated May 29, 2025 7:00 AM ET

Get ready for the third Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl in four years, and give the New Orleans Saints their first No. 1 overall selection since they took George Rogers to lead off the 1981 draft. That’s the early prediction of ESPN’s initial NFL Football Power Index (FPI), released Tuesday.

Should they meet again in Super Bowl LX, Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium in the San Francisco Bay Area, Kansas City and Philadelphia will be familiar foes. Not only have they split respective Super Bowls to decide the 2022 and 2024 seasons, but the Chiefs and Eagles are regulars in the regular season, too.

This year, Philadelphia returns to Kansas City for a Week 2 Super Bowl rematch Sept. 14, three days before Patrick Mahomes’ 30th birthday. In 2023, on a Monday night in Week 11, the Eagles avenged their Super Bowl loss and beat Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium, 21-17.

And should they meet again in Santa Clara, Calif., ironically, the AFC Chiefs (2-1, .667) have played more games at Levi’s Stadium than the NFC Eagles (1-1, .500).

ESPN’s FPI is a measure of team strength that is, according to its site, meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance with a forward-facing perspective. FPI represents how many points above or below the average NFL team, using 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. It figures in the current FPI, results to date and the balance of an NFL schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

The first day was Tuesday, and the FPI sees Philadelphia as the NFL’s No. 1 team, 5.5 points above average. The Chiefs are a thread below at 5.4, and the Ravens are an Isaiah Likely toe behind Kansas City at 5.2.

First look at NFL FPI ratings for the 2025 season! pic.twitter.com/k6s2fg40X7
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) May 27, 2025

Three of the top five teams in the first FPI are in the AFC, including the Chiefs, Ravens and Bengals (seventh, 2.5). Three of the top 12 are in the AFC West: Kansas City (second, 5.4), the L.A. Chargers (ninth, 2.1) and Denver (tied for 11th, 1.3).

The FPI also gives the Eagles an NFL-leading 20.1 percent chance of returning to the Super Bowl. Next on that list is Kansas City (19.2), followed by Buffalo (18.4), Baltimore (17.6) and Detroit (15.0).

What’s interesting is that the FPI accounts for projected playoff performance, too. In other words, it projects the Bills to win more regular-season games (10.6) than both the Ravens (10.4) and Chiefs (10.4). And while the projection is months away, as of this week, the FPI crystal ball shows Buffalo and Kansas City squaring off in a rematch of the AFC Championship, but this time in Buffalo. The Chiefs and Bills are scheduled to play at Highmark Stadium in Week 9 this year.

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This article first appeared on Kansas City Chiefs on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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