Insider Provides Insights on Packers-Lions Showdown

The Green Bay Packers will face the Detroit Lions in a Thanksgiving showdown at Ford Field on Thursday.

The Lions were a preseason favorite to reach the Super Bowl but are 7-4 entering the game. What’s wrong with the Lions? What are the key matchups? And who’s going to win? John Maakaron from Lions On SI has the answers.

1. What’s Wrong?

I think the Lions are one of the best teams in the NFL. If the playoffs would start today, they wouldn’t be in the playoffs. What are the problems?

The Lions’ problems start with their struggles on early downs, which in turn puts them in tough spots on third downs. Despite having one of the most powerful offenses in the league, Detroit is converting third downs at a 36.5 percent rate, which ranks 24th. It’s been difficult for them to get in a sustained flow with these struggles.

Additionally, the Lions have a young interior offensive line, and the group as a whole is banged up. Left tackle Taylor Decker and right Penei Sewell have played through injuries, starting guard Christian Mahogany is on injured reserve and rookie guard Tate Ratledge has been up and down. Finding some consistency, and getting healthy, are paramount for the offense’s success. 

2. Dan Campbell

What impact has Dan Campbell made since taking over the play-calling on offense?

Against Washington in his first game as the offensive play-caller a few weeks ago, coach Dan Campbell had the Lions’ offense in a groove. They were practically unstoppable, scoring on every drive save for their last, when they ran out the clock. However, they were unable to get in that same groove each of the last two weeks in a loss to the Eagles and an overtime win against the Giants.

Part of that inconsistency has been the fact that top tight end Sam LaPorta, who is Jared Goff’s safety blanket, is out for the season. This has resulted in some personnel shuffling, as the Lions have had less two-tight end packages. 

The Packers will present a good test for Campbell and Co. Their pass rush will cause some issues, and the Lions will need to find answers when Micah Parsons have opportunities to attack in passing situations.

3. Lions on Defense

Defensively, everyone knows Aidan Hutchinson, but there have been a lot of injuries. They seem to have stayed afloat pretty well with their first-year coordinator. Who are some of the unsung heroes?

Defensive end Aidan Hutchinson has been steering the ship in the pass rush. Hutchinson leads the Lions with 8.5 sacks and nine tackles for losses, is tied for the NFL lead with four forced fumbles and leads the NFL in pressures, according to Pro Football Focus,

But the team wouldn’t be where it’s at without several under-the-radar contributors.

Amik Robertson sliding from nickel to cornerback has been big for the secondary when starters D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold were out. He has six passes defensed and two forced fumbles. Thomas Harper, a waiver-wire addition after final cuts, has been massive with All-Pro safety Kerby Joseph having missed the last five games and potentially a sixth on Thursday.

Additionally, the return of Alim McNeill has given the interior defensive line a boost. Tyler Lacy is another waiver-wire add that has been solid up front, while Roy Lopez has complimented DJ Reader nicely as the nose tackle. 

4. Key Matchups

What are the one or two matchups that will determine who wins?

For Detroit’s offensive line, this game starts and ends with winning the 1-on-1s against Micah Parsons. Whether he’s across from Taylor Decker or Penei Sewell, the Lions will need to keep him out of the backfield. Parsons was limited when these teams met in Week 1 but will be full go on Thursday in a big game that could decide the NFC North.

As coach Dan Campbell said, “He’s a great player. I like our tackles, I like our O-line. He’s a great player.”

Additionally, the Lions will need more of a pass-rush presence than they had last week. Aidan Hutchinson’s game-ending sack was the first that the Lions got against the Giants, and allowing Jordan Love to have so much time to operate will have a negative outcome for Detroit. The Packers have skilled wideouts who can beat the Lions’ man coverage vertically, so Detroit will need to get after Love and cause problems with its pass rush.

5. Packers-Lions Prediction

Who’s going to win and why?

The Lions are going to have an opportunity to win their way back into the playoffs with the teams still on their schedule. However, those plans can be derailed by one or two losses, especially with how strong the NFC as a whole has performed.

Because there is little room for error, coach Dan Campbell’s team will deliver a strong performance with its back against the wall in a 24-23 win.