Is Falcons' 7.5 win total a national oversight or sign of things to come?

The Atlanta Falcons enter the 2025 preseason with supreme expectations locally, but certainly muted ones nationally. 

Their modest projected win total (7.5) from BetMGM shows a level of skepticism that Atlanta is ready to contend for the postseason. Locally, the message is clear: it’s playoffs or bust. 

While this number ignores the fact that this same Falcons team was well on their way to surpassing this total last year before the fall-off from Kirk Cousins, ultimately, there is not a whole lot of confidence in Raheem Morris’ squad heading into the year. Memory serves to remind the national audience that the Falcons lost six of their final eight games. 

They were also embarrassed at home by the Seahawks (20 points) and on the road against the Broncos (32) and the Vikings (21).

But before that sudden decline from Cousins, the Falcons were 6-3 with wins over the Eagles, a sweep of the Buccaneers, and a few, albeit impressive, narrow losses to other top teams. They appeared to be a team fully capable of making a run at the playoffs. 

This season, a very similar team will be armed with a new, strong-armed quarterback and a defense that figures to be much improved from the one that finished 28th in DVOA. 

The NFL certainly thinks there must be something in the water at Flowery Branch, to some degree, despite the seven consecutive losing records. 

The Falcons are slated for five prime-time matchups this fall, including a pair of showings on Monday Night Football with the Bills and Rams, a Thursday Night Football divisional matchup with the Buccaneers, and two more Sunday Night Football games with the Vikings and 49ers. 

All told, they have the sixth-easiest schedule in the NFC (.478 combined winning percentage), but start the schedule with a gauntlet. Four of their first five opponents reached the postseason last year.

According to the DraftKings sportsbook, the Falcons will not be favored in a single game until Week 8. If those projections hold, Atlanta would be a disastrous 1-6 looking into the second half of the season with despair. Historically, only the 1970 Cincinnati Bengals started with that record and still managed to reach the postseason. 

A start like that would certainly doom 2025 before the season even has a chance of getting started. So, where are the eight wins coming from, if they are coming at all?

The Falcons have high hopes for this year, but the front office also acknowledged the pressure to win big and win now despite the obstacles they will face this season. 

“The pressure is always there,” Fontenot said earlier this offseason. “If you’re not comfortable with the pressure, then you shouldn’t be working in the NFL.”

General Manager Terry Fontenot is entering his fifth season in charge of the club, and he still has very little to show for it. The team has yet to reach the postseason under his watch, or even secure a winning record. In total, the Falcons are just 29-39 since he took over in 2021 and have been one of the league’s least successful teams since reaching the Super Bowl in 2017. 

Elsewhere in the NFC South, Tampa Bay (9.5 wins) is once again expected to represent the division in the postseason, and they rightfully have been given the benefit of the doubt. The Panthers (6.5 wins) and the Saints (6.5 wins) are predicted to come in well below that playoff line. 

If Penix lives up to the hype and Atlanta’s pass rush grows up fast, the Falcons will be in the playoff mix. If not? That 7.5 number might have been right in line with what fans should expect.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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