Is it time to tap brakes on lofty expectations for Broncos?

Are the Denver Broncos on the verge of something big after snapping an eight-year playoff drought last season? Head coach Sean Payton certainly thinks so. 

The 18-year coach has reportedly said the Broncos could be his seventh team that can win a Super Bowl. However, they struggled against championship contenders last season.

The Broncos went 2-5 against playoff teams in 2024. They beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in Week 3 and the Kansas City Chiefs at home in Week 18. The Chiefs had already clinched a playoff spot and rested their starters.

In the AFC wild-card round, the Buffalo Bills dominated the Broncos in a 31-7 home blowout. The team upgraded its roster following the embarrassing postseason loss.  

Denver signed two-time Pro Bowl tight end Evan Engram in free agency. It also added linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga, who should bolster a defense that allowed the league's third-fewest points (18.3) last season. 

To improve their 16th-ranked rushing offense (112.2 YPG), the Broncos took Central Florida running back RJ Harvey (pick No. 60) in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft. He tied for the FBS' fourth-most rushing TDs (22 in 12 games) in 2024. 

Still, those moves may not be enough to push Denver to the next level. As of Tuesday, ESPN's Football Power Index gives them a 3.1 percent chance to win the Super Bowl, the AFC West's third-best behind the Los Angeles Chargers (4.7 percent) and Kansas City Chiefs (10.3 percent). (The Chiefs and Chargers made the playoffs last season.) 

The Broncos have a manageable schedule in 2025. According to Fox Sports, Denver's 2025 opponents combined for a .505 win percentage last season, giving it the league's 15th-toughest schedule. Two of the more challenging matchups come early in the season. 

The Broncos face the Chargers on the road in Week 3. They then travel to Lincoln Financial Field in Week 5, where they play the Philadelphia Eagles, the defending Super Bowl champions.

Monitor the Broncos' performance in both games. They could show whether it's time to tap the brakes on Denver.