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Is this defensive scheme 'ruining' NFL offenses?

By Clark Dalton | Last updated Sep 19, 2024 1:14 PM ET

NFL offenses have seemingly lost their explosiveness this season. Does the rise of a certain pass coverage explain why their numbers have dipped?

Per CBS Sports' Jared Dubin, through the first two weeks of the season, teams are averaging 318.5 yards per game, compared to 331.5 in 2023. They're also averaging 21.8 points per game, compared to a record 24.8 in 2020.

The offensive downturn likely ties to more teams running two-high coverages, where two safeties drop back into the deep part of the field to prevent big passing plays. According to Dubin, teams ran two-high coverages on 26.8 percent of plays in 2019. That figure has increased to 34.6 percent in 2024.

During a Thursday episode of ESPN's "Get Up," longtime draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. claimed the scheme creates "boring football" and should be outlawed.

.@MelKiperESPN believes two-high safeties "should be outlawed"

"The NFL is being ruined by these two-high safeties." pic.twitter.com/d65PFJysIq
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) September 19, 2024

"I'm telling you we gotta change this thing," Kiper said during a rant. "[The safeties are] too far back right now. The NFL is being ruined by these two-high safeties."

Banning a common pass coverage would be silly. Instead, offensive coordinators should find better ways to beat it.

To adapt, OCs are using shorter passes and throwing the ball behind the line of scrimmage.

"More than 24 percent of the league's throws this year have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, while quarterbacks are averaging 7.4 air yards per attempt," wrote The Athletic's Jason Lloyd and Tim Graham. "That's the highest percentage, and the lowest air yards, through the first two weeks since TruMedia began tracking such data in 2006."

Thus, some elite QBs' numbers have declined. Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes has averaged a career-low 221 passing yards per game through two starts, 14th in the league.

Citing TruMedia, Lloyd and Graham noted Mahomes is third in the league in passing behind the line of scrimmage (38 percent).

Perhaps teams should consider running the ball more to force safeties to move up and defend the ground attack. It seems to be working for the New Orleans Saints (2-0).

New Orleans ranks second in the NFL in rushing attempts (76) and third in rushing yards (185 YPG). It also leads the league in passing yards per attempt (11.1) and points scored (45.5).

Regardless, teams must solve their offensive woes. Fans probably don't want to watch low-scoring games with few big plays.

Clark Dalton

Dalton is a 2022 journalism graduate of the University of Texas at Austin. He gained experience in sports media over the past seven years — from live broadcasting and creating short films to podcasting and producing. In college, he wrote for The Daily Texan. He loves sports and enjoys hiking, kayaking and camping.

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