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- Oct 6, 2024; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (7) scores a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts in the second quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Jacksonville Jaguars Win Total 2025: Time To Shock Everyone

Originally posted on Total Apex Fantasy Sports
By Nicholas Mullick | Last updated Aug 30, 2025 5:07 PM ET

With how bad the AFC South is, it’s super hard to have a ton of confidence; however, from the bunch, the Jacksonville Jaguars are the most intriguing team. The 2024 Jaguars were absolutely terrible, and the win total odds at 7.5 are fair. However, with the many changes in the offseason, this team will be much better than they were last year.

The Jaguars’ 2024 Disaster Was Actually a Mirage

Let me paint you a picture of just how unlucky this team was last year. The Jaguars went 1-4 in games decided by three points or fewer. That’s not skill – that’s the football gods having a personal vendetta against Jacksonville. They also managed to lose 3-10 in games decided by seven points or less. For perspective, no other NFL team lost more than seven games by that margin.

When you dig deeper into the numbers, Jacksonville should have finished closer to 6-11 based on their point differential. Still terrible? Absolutely. But not the complete dumpster fire that 4-13 suggests. Sometimes football is just cruel, and the Jaguars caught every bad bounce imaginable in 2024.

The Offense Has Real Talent (When Healthy)

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) warms up before an NFL football matchup Sunday, Dec. 1, 2024 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]

Here’s what makes the Jaguars intriguing for 2025: they played against the toughest schedule of opposing defenses in the league last year. Despite having Trevor Lawrence for only seven games due to injury, they still managed to rank 17th in offensive DVOA. That’s not spectacular, but it’s far from the offensive wasteland you’d expect from a 4-13 team.

With Lawrence healthy and new offensive coordinator Liam Coen bringing fresh ideas from Tampa Bay, this offense could surprise people. The Jaguars added some depth at receiver with Tim Patrick and Dyami Brown, while Travis Etienne Jr. remains one of the more explosive running backs in the league when he’s on his game.

New Leadership Could Change Everything

Doug Pederson’s firing wasn’t exactly shocking. When you lose games by 30 points multiple times, your job security tends to evaporate faster than hope in Cleveland. It’s about time they also fired Trent Baalke, who was easily the worst GM in the NFL at that time as well. Thank Liam Coen, who refused to go to Jacksonville with Baalke there. Coen is the new head coach, and he helped make the Buccaneers offense hum last season. A fresh voice is exactly what this talented team needed.

The Case for the Over

Taking the Jaguars over 7.5 wins at -120 isn’t just about blind optimism: it’s about recognizing value when the market overreacts to a bad season. This team was historically unlucky in close games, played one of the toughest schedules in the league, and dealt with significant injuries to key players.

With Lawrence healthy, a new coaching staff bringing fresh energy, and a schedule that sets up favorably, the Jaguars have all the ingredients for a bounce-back season. Sometimes the best bets are the ones that make you slightly uncomfortable, and betting on Jacksonville to win eight or more games definitely qualifies. Take the over on Jacksonville’s 7.5 win total and the division bet at +310 is super intriguing.

This article first appeared on Total Apex Fantasy Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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