Jaguars 24, Texans 21: 5 Observations

The Jaguars just went into a hostile environment and knocked off an MVP candidate and one of the hottest teams in the AFC. The Jaguars have rebounded from earlier losses this year to improve to 8-3 and now hold a two-game lead in the AFC South.

So, what did we see in Week 12 and what does it mean moving forward?

Jaguars can now focus on AFC Seeding 

Doug Pederson and the Jaguars have done their job in AFC South games this year. They swept the Colts, blew out the Titans at home, and just avenged their lone AFC South loss by beating the Texans to split their series. That makes the Jaguars 4-1 in the AFC South this year, with an easily winnable game vs. the Titans in Week 18 standing in the way of 5-1. As a result, the Jaguars are riding a two-game lead in the AFC South into the final six weeks of the season.

According to the New York Times' playoff machine, the Jaguars have a 99% chance to make the playoffs at the time of this writing. A lot can happen in six weeks, but it feels safe to say they have punched their tickets to the playoffs and a likely AFC South title. Now, the Jaguars can put their focus on a potential No. 1 seed as they battle with the likes of the Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, and Baltimore Ravens. 

Defending that fourth-down call

Jaguars offensive coordinator Press Taylor had one of his best games of the season, but fans are likely going to remember the one call that didn't work. After a 57-yard catch from Christian Kirk put the Jaguars on the one-yard line in the final play of the first-half, Doug Pederson, Taylor and the Jaguars opted for a toss to Travis Etienne to the right. It was stuffed and the Jaguars came away with 0 points in what ended up only a three-point win.

Was it really that bad of a call, though? I would have likely attempted the Trevor Lawrence leap over the goal line again, but chances are the Texans were keyed in on that after Lawrence already did it. The hard answer is the Jaguars are simply a bad short-yardage team, and they don't seem to have many easy answers from a yard out. It was a bad call simply because it didn't work, but the Jaguars have had that same call result in big plays for them this year. 

Jacksonville has learned how to peak at the right time

The beauty of the NFL is that every single week matters. It is a war of attrition and stamina, a test of fortitude and consistency. A little bit of luck factors in every year, but the cream normally rises to the top. The good teams begin to separate themselves in November and December, and that is exactly what the Jaguars are doing. They did it last year, going 6-2 in the final two months of the season. 

The Jaguars sure seem to be doing it this year, too, with the offense having two of its best performances in back-to-back weeks. The Jaguars are 11-4 in November/December/January games under Doug Pederson, showing that the Jaguars have learned how to peak at the right time. And by the way, the only losses in that span: two losses to the Super Bowl-winning Chiefs, a loss to the 2022 Lions, and a loss to the 2023 49ers. Some good football teams there.

The Josh Allen price is going up every single week  

At this point, it would be a shock if Josh Allen didn't end up with the single-season franchise sack record. Allen is just 2.5 sacks behind the 14.5 sacks that Calais Campbell notched in 2017, and he has several matchups against poor offensive lines. There is a real chance Allen finishes with closer to 17.5 sacks, which would likely put him in Defensive Player of the Year category.

So, yeah. You can't not pay him. You can't be the franchise that lets this kind of pass-rusher get away, especially not after he played a giant role in a season-defining win. Allen's production in 2023 has called the Jaguars' bluff, and it sure doesn't seem like his price is going down any time soon.

Trevor Lawrence is on one of the best two-game stretches of his career

We have seen Trevor Lawrence get on hot streaks before. The third-year quarterback started to elevate his play at around this point last season, stacking several big performances vs. the Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, and Dallas Cowboys. Lawrence has started to do the same this year, recovering from his 49ers performance to put up two legitimately elite performances vs. the Titans and Texans.

Lawrence made, in my opinion, two poor throws vs. the Texans. He was late to Luke Farrell in the end-zone, though he would go on to throw a touchdown on the next play. He then threw behind Farrell on a potential first-down on the final offensive series of the game. Otherwise, he had probably the best game of his career. He had money throw after money throw in high-leverage situations, wasn't sacked, and didn't put the ball in harm's way considering his lone turnover was the result of a missed defensive holding call.