Jaguars' Path to Potential No. 1 Seed Begins vs. 49ers

As of Nov. 10, the Jacksonville Jaguars sit at third in the AFC; one win behind Baltimore (7-2) and Kansas City (7-2), and one loss ahead of Miami (6-3). With the San Francisco 49ers coming to town on Sunday, the Jaguars are about to enter their most difficult, and arguably most crucial, stretch of the season.

Over the next five weeks the Jaguars will face three AFC opponents currently in the playoffs; the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns, tied for second place in the AFC North at 5-3, and the aforementioned playoff-bound Ravens. With quarterback Lamar Jackson playing at an MVP level, massively improved offensive play from Cincinnati and Cleveland playing defense like it’s the 1970’s, Duval faithful will know exactly what kind of team the Jaguars are by week 16.

Despite playing four of the NFL’s premier teams the Jaguars won’t have any chances to catch their breath, as divisional foes in Tennessee (3-5) and Houston (4-4) will be getting in on the fun in weeks 11 and 12. Through the fog of war, however, the hope of securing the number one seed in the AFC for the first time since 2018 shines as bright as ever.

The Jaguars currently enjoy the NFL’s longest winning streak with five straight victories and, thanks in large part to their recent success, control their own destiny. Already sporting a 4-2 conference record through 10 weeks, the Jags have positioned themselves very favorably within the AFC as they prepare to host five straight conference opponents after Week 10.

This week, all five of their upcoming opponents will play in what should be highly competitive contests; four of them play each other.

Week 10 features three games Jaguars fans should pay very close attention to; Browns at Ravens, Texans at Bengals, and Titans at Buccaneers. Should luck look favorably upon the city of Jacksonville, there’s a very real chance the Jags could be tied with the Chiefs for first place in the AFC as soon as Monday morning.

But what will it take to ensure the AFC playoffs run through Jacksonville?

Most importantly, Jaguars fans should be rooting for the Bengals and the Buccaneers to defeat their divisional rivals. Another loss for both Tennessee and Houston would ensure Jacksonville maintains their respective three-game and two-game leads in-division; a win against San Francisco would make those leads all-but insurmountable.

Secondly, though neither outcome is entirely beneficial to the Jaguars hunt for the one seed, Duval faithful should be sporting plenty of orange on Sunday as the Ravens host the Browns. With a Ravens loss, Jacksonville draws one game closer to the number one spot; with a win this weekend, however… I think you get the picture.

All the Jaguars can do is play who’s in front of them, and this weekend the reeling San Francisco 49ers have presented them with a golden opportunity to prove their legitimacy. With quarterback Brock Purdy playing the worst football of his short–albeit stellar–career and the Niners in the midst of the three-game losing streak, a win over one of the NFC’s true powerhouses seems as plausible as it could possibly be.

At Jaguar Report, however, we don’t count our eggs until they hatch. We also love a nutritious breakfast, and Jacksonville makes a mean omelet.

In week six, Brock Purdy threw his first interception since January against the Cleveland Browns. In weeks seven and eight, he threw four more to the Bengal’s and Viking’s 22nd and 18th ranked passing defenses.

The Jaguars’ secondary hasn’t been any better, allowing a nearly league-worst average of 263.5 passing yards a game. Their ability to take the football away, however, has counteracted the holes in their coverages in a big way.

Defensive backs Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco are both slated to return from multi-week injuries on Sunday and, given Purdy’s recent play, should be in for strong performances. In their stead cornerback Antonio Johnson and depth safety Andrew Windgard have picked up the slack; Foyesade Oluokon also snagged his first interception of the season against the Saints with Campbell sidelined.

Offensively, Lawrence and the Jaguars will need to be nothing short of perfect; the San Francisco defense is incredibly stingy against the run, but can be taken advantage of in the passing game. Although running back Travis Etienne Jr. has enjoyed a third-year breakout through eight games, the star-studded 49ers front-seven will likely eliminate him from the equation and force Lawrence to beat them with his arm.

Ironically, that’s exactly how the Jaguars win their games.

The path to the top seed in the AFC is laid out before the Jaguars, who have arguably been the league’s hottest team over the last two months. Should they have any hope of securing the conference’s number one spot, they will first need to take care of business against the San Francisco 49ers.