Jan 7, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) stands in the pocket against the Tennessee Titans during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Jaguars Will Determine AFC South's Ceiling in 2025

Originally posted on Jacksonville Jaguars on SI
By John Shipley | Last updated Jun 22, 2025 5:00 PM ET

The Jacksonville Jaguars could very well determine the short- and long-term future of the AFC South.

As things stand today, only Liam Coen's squad looks set to have a chance to overachieve any preseason expectations. And as a result, the Jaguars are the team that is set to determine the AFC South's ceiling in 2025 and even beyond.

The Tennessee Titans should be improved from last year's NFL-worst squad, but it is worth noting that most No. 1 picks have struggled to quickly turn around their franchises in recent years. Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young and Caleb Williams all went through mighty struggles as rookies after being placed on the worst rosters in the NFL, and that is the reality facing Ward.

Ward has the talent to overcome some of the Titans' flaws on the roster and coaching staff, but you will not find many people picking the Titans as a playoff contender. If they can win six or seven games, that will likely constitue as a success. A solid season, but not one that lifts the AFC South out of the NFL's cellar.

The Indianapolis Colts seem like a franchise that is just going through the motions. Yes, they added big money names to their poorus secondary this offseason and upgraded at defensive coordinator. But their Anthony Richardson vs. Daniel Jones quarterback battle feels a lot like this year's version of Aidan O'Connell vs. Gardner Minshew. Someone will win the battle, but the Colts likely won't.

Then there are the Houston Texans, who are widely viewed as the eventual winners of the division after back-to-back first-place finishes under C.J. Stroud and Demeco Ryans. With that said, there is reason to think this Texans' squad has more questions than last year's. For the Texans to lift the AFC South's ceiling, they would need to be a 12- or 13-win team, and that feels ambitious for their roster.

That leaves just the Jaguars. The Jaguars are coming off a brutal 4-13 season, and most expectations around them are guarded. People expect them to improve, but by how much?

If Liam Coen can guide Lawrence and the Jaguars back to an AFC South title, they would firmly be the biggest overachiever in the AFC South and perhaps in the entire AFC. There is a clear path to doing so, and we will have to wait to see if they can hit their target.