Ja'Marr Chase puts muscle in this SGP for TNF

What did we used to do without Thursday Night Football? Only two days off without football is an extremely manageable break, but we're glad that Week 4 is already here. It starts off with what should be a great matchup in the AFC, as the 3-0 Dolphins visit the 1-2 Bengals.

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals

Miami: 3-0 overall, 3-0 ATS, 1-2 overs | Cincinnati: 1-2 overall, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 overs

The Bengals' defense has allowed just three touchdowns this season, albeit against some mediocre offenses in the Steelers, Cowboys and Jets. This is their first true test, in our opinion anyway.

Miami's most recent defensive performance is a bit mind-boggling. Holding Buffalo's vaunted offense to only 17 points looks tremendous on paper, but it's hard to understand how they did so when the Bills held the ball for over 40 minutes of the game and racked up 497 yards on 90 plays. Throw away the points for a moment, as Buffalo had some missed opportunities to score, and this defensive performance does not seem great. There tends to be an absolute mindset in the NFL: Miami won and kept Buffalo stifled, thus their defense is elite. It's not that simple. Such a quick turnaround after being on the field for so long makes us think this Cincinnati offense can move the ball effectively tonight.

We've established that points look good, so who leads the charge?

The Dolphins have been most generous to wide receivers scoring, allowing four WRs to find the end zone, tied for ninth-highest in the league. Ja'Marr Chase was quiet last week on the yardage front as Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd went off, but he still found the end zone, his second score of the season. Chase is the clear WR1 in Cincinnati, playing the most snaps and seeing the most targets. As we head into Week 4, Chase has nine red zone targets, six more than the next closest pass-catcher. Chase is +100 to score on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Cincinnati has shown a proclivity for getting beat deep, which suits this Dolphins' offensive style beautifully. The Bengals have seen 12 passes of 20+ yards completed against them, tied for fourth-most in the league, and defenses have consistently targeted their secondary deep down the field. Jaylen Waddle tops the team in average depth of target (aDOT) at 11.6, and he's scored three touchdowns this season. Waddle and Tyreek Hill should put a strain on this defense, but we prefer Waddle, as his odds are better and he leads the WR group in red zone looks. Waddle's best odds to score are +145 on Caesars.

Tonight's play will build around these two young wideouts scoring, with a teased down over, given how often primetime games come up short with points. 

+438 SGP on FanDuel:

• Over 40.5 points
• Ja'Marr Chase touchdown
• Jaylen Waddle touchdown

In the news ...

Aaron Judge hits homer No. 61 — After eight games without a homer, Aaron Judge has finally tied Roger Maris' Yankees (and American League) record for most homers in a season, with 61. Sportsbooks have been offering promotions nightly to promote Judge's quest for 62, so expect the options to buoy as he looks to break the record in the coming days. The Yankees have seven games remaining in the regular season.

College football Week 5 begins tonight — There's no better place to turn for your college football prep than Yardbarker. We have you covered with a full betting preview of the Week 5 slate. We have some terrific conference matchups this weekend. In the Pac-12, a pair of 4-0 teams will face off between Washington and UCLA. Two top-15 teams meet in an SEC battle as No. 7 Kentucky travels to No. 14 Ole Miss and the night game is No. 10 N.C. State visiting No. 5 Clemson in a pivotal ACC contest. Should be a fantastic weekend of college football!

Pac-12 in danger as conference realignments continue — The Big 10 was able to grab the two crown jewels of the Pac-12 in USC and UCLA, both of whom will be joining their new conference in 2024. There is a domino effect growing more and more likely that starts with the Big Ten also bringing in California, Oregon, Stanford and Washington. Should that happen, the Big 12 is prepared to pounce and poach Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah, thus leaving the Pac-12 with only two remaining schools, effectively ending the conference entirely.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll