Jets’ AD Mitchell has stunning numbers without Anthony Richardson

With Flacco, the completion rate more than doubled to 58%. Despite having 40 fewer route-running chances with Flacco than Richardson, Mitchell posted seven more receptions, four more first downs, and 12 more yards.

In fact, Mitchell’s per-route efficiency with Flacco at quarterback was at the level of a star receiver.

With 10 first downs on 83 routes run, Mitchell averaged one first down every 8.3 routes with Flacco at quarterback. For perspective, that would currently rank seventh-best among wide receivers in 2025, right between Keenan Allen and Ja’Marr Chase.

Additionally, Mitchell averaged 1.95 yards per route run, which is equivalent to the 2025 rate of the Colts’ WR1, Michael Pittman Jr., who ranks 15th in the category.

This isn’t to say that Mitchell’s rookie year was flawless. He had four drops and two fumbles, while securing none of his five contested targets.

There were things Mitchell needed to work on, as is the case with any young player. However, he was nowhere near the lost cause that his surface-level numbers painted him as. When he had a viable NFL quarterback throwing him the ball, Mitchell made plays at an excellent rate, giving him a high ceiling moving forward.

Has Mitchell’s value really changed?

Despite being a clear victim of Richardson’s inability to throw the ball at a junior varsity level, Mitchell was punished for his rookie year, as the Colts relegated him to a minimal role at the start of the 2025 season. He had played only 46 offensive snaps through Week 4.

In a Week 5 game against the Rams, Mitchell got the opportunity to start due to the absence of Alec Pierce. Mitchell played a season-high 54 snaps (89%), but squandered the opportunity. His most memorable moment was an unforced goal-line fumble as he extended the ball in celebration, erasing a would-be 76-yard touchdown; to his credit, he created the touchdown opportunity with an incredible catch and ensuing run.

This bone-headed blunder landed Mitchell in the doghouse from that point on. Mitchell played just 24 snaps over the Colts’ next five games; he was even a healthy scratch in one game.

An unfortunate series of events buried Mitchell in a deep hole with the Colts’ coaching staff, to the point where the front office deemed him expendable once the trade deadline arrived.

But what has Mitchell actually done to warrant being downgraded from the second-round value he carried 18 months ago?

As we broke down, Mitchell’s rookie-year efficiency without Richardson was enough to suggest that he had the potential to be a top receiver in the league. It was a small sample, but that was the Colts’ own fault for drafting Richardson in the first place and sticking with him despite his unplayable ability.

From a statistical standpoint, the non-Richardson reps are all that Mitchell should have been evaluated on. He passed the test in that regard, at least relative to the expectations of a second-round rookie.

Not to mention, this is with Joe Flacco being the alternate quarterback, not Joe Montana. Flacco is no surgeon himself, owning a well-below-average 60.9% completion rate in the 2020s.

Up until the Los Angeles mistake, Mitchell’s non-Richardson efficiency looked outstanding. That’s including not only his Flacco reps in 2024, but also his efficient start to the 2025 season with Daniel Jones, where he was productive relative to his limited reps.

If we add Mitchell’s first four games of the 2025 season to his rookie numbers with Flacco, he had 299 receiving yards on 134 routes run. That’s a sparkling 2.23 yards per route run, which would currently rank 12th in the NFL among 65 wide receivers with at least 30 targets (right between DeVonta Smith and George Pickens).

That seems pretty darn good for a 23-year-old receiver with a second-round pedigree.

Yet, here he is, getting tossed aside as a mere throw-in.

Seemingly, Mitchell’s value in the Colts’ eyes declined mainly because of his poor rookie-year production with Richardson at quarterback and his costly mistake against Los Angeles. But neither factor has much of an effect on his talent and potential.

No pass catcher should be judged on their performance with a quarterback as bad as Richardson. While the fumble was inexcusable, it doesn’t change his ability as a receiver, and it only makes him less likely to commit the same error in the future.

To date, Mitchell has generally performed like the second-round talent he was billed as. The Jets are poised to be the beneficiaries of an unfortunate series of events that caused Indianapolis to undervalue him.