Jets have insiders, sportsbooks guessing regarding David Bailey, Arvell Reese NFL Draft decision

As recently as Tuesday, Ohio State pass-rusher Arvell Reese was the betting favorite to be the player selected by the New York Jets with the second overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft on Thursday night. 

That changed by Wednesday morning when DraftKings Sportsbook listed Texas Tech defensive end David Bailey as the betting favorite at -145 odds to be the draft's second pick. For his final mock draft, ESPN's Peter Schrager addressed why he thinks the Jets will take Bailey over Reese. 

Nothing has changed regarding the Jets' David Bailey, Arvell Reese decision?

"I've had Bailey going to the Jets for the past month, and I have no further intel telling me any different," Schrager wrote. "Ohio State's Arvell Reese is a great player, but I'm sticking with Bailey. New York needs his instant production (14.5 sacks last season) for its lackluster pass rush."

While the Jets recently canceled their scheduled top-30 visit with Bailey, team general manager Darren Mougey insisted on Tuesday that outsiders shouldn't "look too much into a cancellation." Todd McShay of The Ringer believes Mougey was being honest, as McShay also has the Jets grabbing Bailey over Reese. 

"Jets GM Darren Mougey is going to lean into risk aversion here, and it sounds like he views Bailey as the safer pick than Arvell Reese," McShay wrote for a mock draft updated on Wednesday. "Credit to Mougey and his extremely small inner circle, who have done a great job of keeping this pick quiet."

Jets fans who want Arvell Reese shouldn't panic yet

Also on Wednesday, ESPN's Dan Graziano gave Jets fans who want Reese and not Bailey some hope. 

"Everything I've been told since the latter part of last week leads me to believe the Jets will select Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese with the second pick in the draft," Graziano said. "For the longest time, it has felt as if the Jets were deciding between Reese and Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey, and I recognize that some draft analysts have predicted Bailey here. Reese versus Bailey has been a topic of debate in the Jets' building. But ever since Bailey's planned visit to the Jets got canceled last week, people I trust in the league have told me they think the Jets have settled on Reese. He can help them immediately as an off-ball linebacker even if he needs time to develop into a high-level edge rusher (and he might not even need that time)."

The perception exists that Jets head coach Aaron Glenn may prefer Bailey because, as The Athletic's Zack Rosenblatt noted for a mock draft posted on Wednesday, "it’s said that Bailey is more ready to contribute right away as a pass-rusher." Nevertheless, Rosenblatt agrees with Graziano and thinks Reese will be the Jets' pick. 

"I personally believe Reese might actually be more impactful in 2026 — especially for this team," Rosenblatt explained. "Bailey is not considered good against the run, while Reese will have the ability to play every down and at multiple spots. Beyond the immediate impact factor, Reese might have the highest ceiling of anyone in this draft — and the Jets should be taking a swing on someone with that potential."

Regarding that "highest ceiling" comment, The Athletic's Dane Brugler has Reese ranked as the top overall prospect in this year's class. The Jets seem to be on track to get an impact player at pick No. 2, but insiders were still guessing about the identity of that player as of Wednesday morning.