Jets vs. 49ers picks, predictions, props, odds, best bets for 'Monday Night Football'

Brandon Anderson's Jets vs. 49ers Bet Against the Spread

Monday, Sept. 9

8:15 p.m. ET

ESPN/ABC

Jets +4 (-110, BetMGM)

By Brandon Anderson

I'm all-in on the Jets, and this is a great spot for New York on Monday night.

I rate the healthy Jets as the best roster in the NFL, just ahead of the Chiefs and 49ers, and if that's the case, we should be betting the Jets aggressively early when they are the healthiest. The 49ers, meanwhile, sort of stumble into this game. Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk are finally back but we'll see how much either plays, and Christian McCaffrey was out hurt all preseason too.

We haven't seen Aaron Rodgers this preseason, but you already know I'm in on Rodgers, with his +2500 MVP ticket my top awards play of the preseason. Rodgers has always loved playing the 49ers, the team that passed on drafting him No. 1 overall. He's 6-3 against the Niners with 20 passing TDs and just two interceptions in the regular season.

Road underdogs that missed the playoffs are 57-31-2 ATS (65%) in Week 1 since 2011, so the Jets may be a bit undervalued here. Rodgers is 15-9 ATS (63%) lifetime as an underdog, including 11-13 SU as a dog of over a field goal.

The 49ers have started slowly under Kyle Shanahan. His teams are about rhythm and rounding into peak form, and he's just 2-5 ATS in Week 1. Even worse, Super Bowl losers this century are an awful 5-19 ATS in Week 1 (21%), including just 10-14 SU. The Super Bowl hangover is real, and it's a great spot for the Jets to come in and steal one on the road with nasty defense and a suddenly good offense with the line and QB improvements.

This line could end up rising a touch toward San Francisco since it looks like Haason Reddick is out for the Jets and Aiyuk and Williams are likely in for the Niners. Be ready to play the moment you hear Trent Williams is out, though. When Williams plays half the snaps or less, the 49ers have lost five straight games without topping 20 points, and they're 21-2 SU otherwise in that same time frame. He's the true MVP of this team and would be a huge loss.

There's not a ton of value moving up from +4.5 unless it gets to +6, so go ahead and play the Jets now. I like the moneyline too, especially if it gets near +200. J-E-T-S!

Pick: Jets +4 (-110)

John LanFranca Bets the Over/Under

Monday, Sept. 9

8:15 p.m. ET

ESPN/ABC

Under 43.5 (-110, BetMGM)

By John LanFranca

This total continues to drop and for good reason. Both defensive lines will have a substantial advantage over their opponent's offensive line on Monday night.

For Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, the improvements up front will not translate immediately to long-developing plays or an overall aggressive nature. Expect the Jets to use max protection often, otherwise opting to get the ball out of Rodgers' hands quickly.

As for the 49ers, we cannot be certain Brock Purdy will enjoy his full complement of weapons. Brandon Aiyuk may play a limited number of snaps, Christian McCaffrey could potentially see his workload limited, and Trent Williams has barely seen the practice field.

The Jets defense travels. Games played outside of New York involving the Jets have seen the under cash at a 64.7% rate over the last two years. Furthermore, night games across the entire NFL are 17-6 to the under over the last two years in the month of September, cashing at a 73.9% rate.

It's very unlikely this total creeps back up to 44, but I am comfortable playing under 43.5, as well.

Pick: Under 43.5 (-110)

A Deebo Samuel Player Prop for 'Monday Night Football'

Monday, Sept. 9

8:15 p.m. ET

ESPN/ABC

Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)

By Matt Trebby

Brandon Aiyuk joined the 49ers late in training camp after agreeing to a contract extension. Because of that, head coach Kyle Shanahan said Aiyuk would be on a reduced snap count on Monday night.

That will put even more on the shoulders of teammate Deebo Samuel.

I’m not expecting that Brock Purdy will be able to lean on Aiyuk, so I’m looking toward either George Kittle or Samuel. Well, the Jets ranked first in DVOA against opposing tight ends last season, so that mostly eliminates him.

All three players have similar receiving yard totals: Kittle 42.5, Samuel 47.5 and Aiyuk 49.5. I’m focused on who doesn’t have an awful matchup and who is going to assuredly have a normal workload.

That leads me to Samuel, who Sean Koerner’s mean projection for, as of Sunday at 1:15 p.m. ET, is 55 receiving yards.

Pick: Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

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