Joe Burrow makes his Super Bowl LIX prediction and his reasoning is backed by the numbers

Barkley running behind Philadelphia's impressive offensive line has proven to be an incredible hard combination to stop. The All-Pro tailback has rushed for 442 yards and five touchdowns in three postseason games on 66 total attempts. Should he maintain his 6.7 yards per carry average against Kansas City, it's going to be tough for the back-to-back defending champs to complete the three-peat.

But Burrow, who took home AP Comeback Player of the Year honors Thursday night, isn't wrong about his reasoning. The Chiefs tend to stop the run particularly well on this stage.

Last year against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII, Kansas City held that offense to -0.36 EPA/rush and a 47% rushing success rate as Christian McCaffrey had just 80 yards rushing on 22 carries. San Fran's lack of trust in its rushing attack was the main reason why K.C.'s defense put together critical stops in the second half, eventually winning the game, 25-22.

The year prior, the Eagles averaged -0.07 EPA/rush and a 55% success rate in Super Bowl LVII thanks to Jalen Hurts posting 70 yards on the ground and three touchdowns on 15 carries. The actual running backs—Kenneth Gainwell, Miles Sanders, and Boston Scott—combined for just 45 yards on 17 carries. The Chiefs won a shootout, 38-35, as a result.

You'd have to go back to Super Bowl LV in 2021 when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took advantage of a great game script thanks to their pass rush dominating a depleted Chiefs' offensive line. Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones combined for 150 yards on 28 carries as the Bucs controlled nearly the entire game and averaged -0.01 EPA/rush with a 50% success rate.

Barkley will represent a legitimate threat to blowing the game wide open, but as Burrow points out, the Chiefs deserve some credit for how they've performed in this department. 

Oh, and having Patrick Mahomes at QB doesn't hurt, either.