Joe Burrow's return from turf toe injury gets an updated prediction from NFL insider

It's been over a month since Joe Burrow suffered Grade 3 turf toe. The Cincinnati Bengals' franchise quarterback underwent surgery on Sept. 19, four days after he exited the club's Week 2 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The initial recovery timeline for Burrow was deemed to be three months from surgery. Three months from the date of his operation would put him at Dec. 19., two days before Cincinnati's Week 16 matchup against the Miami Dolphins.

NFL Media's Ian Rapoport believes, while there's no true target date for a return, Burrow could return for that game if the Bengals are still in the hunt.

"My guess is the last two or three games of the season, he has a chance," Rapoport told Kevin Clark of This is Football. "But if they're alive, then I think we really may see Burrow, which that is suddenly pretty realistic, and that would be the most dramatic of all things, and that would be very fun."

Bengals' final 3 games of 2025 season

• Week 16: Dec. 21 @ Miami Dolphins
• Week 17: Dec. 27/28 vs. Arizona Cardinals
• Week 18: Jan. 3/4 vs. Cleveland Browns

How Joe Burrow can come back during 2025 season

Burrow has longer to go in his recovery than what he's already endured, and the regular season will wrap up in 11 weeks. He first needs to be able to play before time runs out, and as Rapoport rightfully added, Cincinnati would need to be in a position to make the playoffs.

The incentive to play Burrow as soon as his projected recovery wraps is nonexistent if the Bengals are out of playoff contention.

This is why what happened last Thursday was so important. Cincinnati upset the Pittsburgh Steelers, 33-31, to move to 3-4 on the year in Joe Flacco's second start, and the AFC North-leading Steelers suffered their first divisional loss. The game ostensibly keeps hope alive for the Bengals entering the heart of the season when good and bad teams start separating from one another.

Staying around, or possibly above, .500 by the time Burrow could come back would create the scenario in which a return could happen.

When December gets closer, we'll have a greater idea of whether or not Burrow can come back in time, and if it will even be worth it to bring him back.