Jordan Love vs. Caleb Williams breakdown offers explosive insights that predict who takes control in massive Packers-Bears game

Football is a team game, so we won't do QB Wins stuff around here. But both the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears made big investments at the quarterback position, so Jordan Love and Caleb Williams are a big part of what they have built and what they will put on the field next Sunday at Lambeau Field.

At the moment, the Bears are 9-3 with the first seed in the NFC. The Packers are 8-3-1, second place in the NFC North and sixth seed in the NFC — but a win on Sunday makes Green Bay surpass Chicago in the standings.

Individually, Caleb Williams has clearly progressed compared to his rookie year, but Love is still ahead — and basically every advanced stat will attest that reality. The numbers come from RBSDM, PFF, and ESPN.

Jordan Love vs. Caleb Williams stat comparison

Adjusted EPA/play

• Jordan Love: 0.312 (1st/33)
• Caleb Williams: 0.071 (23rd/33)

This is used to measure how efficient a quarterback and an offense in general are. So in addition to success, it measures explosiveness.

Success rate

• Jordan Love: 52.0% (5th/33)
• Caleb Williams: 44.5% (27th/33)

Unlike EPA, success rate is a down-by-down stat. It doesn't matter how big the play is, if it's a successful down for the team based on down and distance.

Completion percentage over expectation

• Jordan Love: 5.3 (3rd/33)
• Caleb Williams: -4.9 (32nd/33)

This is more of an individual stat, taking into consideration how likely the QB is to complete a pass based on how open the target is and the overall positioning of players.

Air yards

• Jordan Love: 8.6 (10th/33) 
• Caleb Williams: 8.6 (9th/33)

This is related to the average depth of target.

Big-time throw rate

• Jordan Love: 5.7 (3rd/28)
• Caleb Williams: 4.0 (12th/28)

PFF stat to measure great throws based on difficulty and importance.

Turnover-worthy play rate

• Jordan Love: 2.6 (8th/28)
• Caleb Williams: 2.7 (11th/28)

PFF stat to measure plays that could have been a turnover, whether it actually became one or not. A dropped interception, for example, is still a turnover-worthy play. But a tipped pass by the receiver that becomes an interception is not.

Pressure to sack ratio

• Jordan Love: 11.0 (4th/28)
• Caleb Williams: 12.5 (8th/28)

Self-explanatory, and this an area where Caleb Williams showed the most improvement from his rookie year. Love has always been great at avoiding sacks.

Time to throw

• Jordan Love: 2.81 (15th/28)
• Caleb Williams: 3.24 (28th/28)

How much time the quarterback takes from the snap to the pass. Mobile quarterbacks tend to have a longer time to throw.

Passer rating

• Jordan Love: 104.3 (6th/28)
• Caleb Williams: 88.2 (20th/28)

Classic NFL stat based on completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD:INT ratio.

PFF passing grade

• Jordan Love: 89.0 (2nd/28)
• Caleb Williams: 66.8 (19th/28)

It has a relation to success rate, but PFF does that by isolating individual performance on a play-by-play basis.

QBR

• Jordan Love: 72.9 (3rd/31)
• Caleb Williams: 54.8 (18th/31)

QBR is an efficiency stat created by ESPN to measure a quarterback's contribution to the team's success by evaluating all their on-field actions, including passing, rushing, sacks, and penalties.

This story was originally published by A to Z Sports on Dec 1, 2025, where it first appeared in the NFL section. Add A to Z Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.