Justin Fields’ stats over last 17 starts are shocking: Does it matter?

Despite a thin receiving room, a below-average offensive line, and a bottom-tier play caller, Fields led the Bears offense to 1.97 points per drive in his 11 starts – precisely league-average. That is well above expectations relative to the situation he was placed in.

It culminated in a 5-6 record, which is an impressive feat for a team of that caliber.

2024 Steelers

Fields’ situation with the 2024 Steelers is a complex one to unpack. In some ways, he was aided tremendously, and in others, he was hamstrung.

The major positives in Pittsburgh were the defense and the coaching staff.

Over Fields’ six starts, the Steelers allowed just 14.3 points per game, so he did not have to do much to earn his 4-2 record. In five of his six starts, 21 points would have been enough to get a victory.

On top of that, when you are the quarterback of a Mike Tomlin-coached team, going above .500 is essentially a lock, even if you are the corpse of Big Ben or the likes of Mason Rudolph. Pittsburgh is a well-oiled machine that usually finds a way to eke out ugly wins if the game is close.

However, Fields did have some obstacles to overcome in Pittsburgh.

The offensive line was once again a liability. The Steelers finished the season ranked 24th in PFF’s team pass-blocking grade, one spot lower than Fields’ 2023 Bears.

Pittsburgh also did not have any better of a receiving corps than Chicago. George Pickens as the WR1 was a downgrade compared to Moore. Pat Freiermuth can be considered a wash with Kmet, and after that, the Steelers’ next-leading targets were wide receiver Calvin Austin III, running back Najee Harris, running back Jaylen Warren, and wide receiver Van Jefferson.

Most importantly, Fields was the backup in a scheme designed for Russell Wilson. While Fields was on the field, Pittsburgh ran a simplified offense intended to limit turnovers and put the game in the defense’s hands.

On the positive side, it helped Fields earn a career-low interception rate of 0.6% – he only tossed one pick. However, it also placed a cap on Fields’ explosiveness, as he posted career lows in yards per completion (10.4) and yards per rush attempt (4.7).

Fields led the Steelers to 2.07 points per drive as the starting quarterback. That’s another above-expectations result in relation to his below-average offensive line and receiving room.

The looming red flag

So far, Fields’ 9-8 record has appeared quite legitimate. His individual metrics are congruent with that record, as are the metrics of his offenses. Coupled with the low expectations of his supporting casts, it feels as if Fields has earned every bit of his 9-8 record.

But a massive red flag casts a shadow over all of this.

Fields has benefited from some tremendously good fortune in the turnover department.

If you look at the box score, it would seem like Fields has developed into a quality ball protector. Fields has only thrown seven interceptions over his last 17 starts.

However, according to PFF, Fields has thrown 18 turnover-worthy passes over that span.

For perspective, in the 2024 season, the league-average ratio between interceptions and turnover-worthy throws was 61%. In other words, the average quarterback had 61% as many interceptions as turnover-worthy throws. That is the baseline level of “luck” that a quarterback should have when it comes to seeing his dangerous throws converted into interceptions.

Fields’ rate over his last 17 starts is all the way down at 38.9%.

If Fields’ turnover-worthy throws were converted into interceptions at a league-average rate (61% of 18), he would have thrown 11 interceptions over his last 17 starts – four more than his actual total.

Adding four interceptions to Fields’ name would be very likely to flip multiple wins into losses.

This luck extends to the fumble department. Fields has only lost four fumbles over his last 17 starts, but he fumbled 13 times.

Fields’ luck in this area is not quite as strong as his luck with interceptions, but he has still been fortunate. Whereas only 30.8% of Fields’ fumbles were lost, the 2024 league average for quarterbacks was 38%. This means Fields is expected to have lost about five fumbles, one more than his actual total.

Overall, if Fields had league-average luck with turnover-worthy throws and fumbles, he would have committed approximately five more turnovers than he actually did.

That puts Fields’ baseline numbers in an entirely different light.

In real life, Fields had 27 total touchdowns to 11 turnovers over his last 17 starts. That looks like a perfectly normal ratio for a quarterback who went 9-8. It’s a ratio of 2.45-to-1, which is better than the 2024 league average for quarterbacks, which was 1.82-to-1.

But if you added five turnovers to Fields’ stat line, he would suddenly free-fall down to 27 touchdowns and 16 turnovers, which is a 1.69-to-1 ratio – below the league average. That’s before accounting for the fact that he would probably lose some of his touchdowns in this hypothetical scenario.

With this context applied, Fields no longer appears as competent as his surface-level metrics suggest. Add five turnovers over a one-season sample, and nine wins could quickly turn into seven – or worse.

What does it mean going forward?

Can Fields go 9-8 over his next 17 starts?

Well, it already happened once. So, it is not unfeasible to believe that it could happen again.

With that being said, Fields needed some excellent luck to get there. If his luck normalizes in the future, he will not replicate the production that earned him his 9-8 record.

If you adjust Fields’ performance over his last 17 starts for league-average turnover luck, he probably would have won six or seven games. That is the true baseline he is starting from.

Based on unadjusted metrics, Fields performed every bit like a 9-8 quarterback over his last 17 games. He had an above-average passer rating, an above-average touchdown-to-turnover ratio, and led his offenses to above-average points per drive – all while overcoming subpar supporting casts.

But if the data about his turnover luck is a warning sign of what’s to come, then Fields’ last 17 starts will go down as nothing more than a mirage.

That means the only realistic way for Fields to match his past production is to improve as a player. When you overachieve, you must progress merely to sustain.

If Fields plays the exact same caliber of football, odds are he is going to suffer many more interceptions and lost fumbles than he did over his last 17 starts, all without adding improved production as a passer to compensate for it.

But if Fields plays improved football, he should be able to lift his game enough to the point where he can sustain 9-8-caliber production even if his turnover luck reverts to the mean.

Unfortunately, Fields’ performance in training camp and the preseason did not suggest that he is on the verge of playing like an improved passer in 2025. That is a daunting sign for New York.

It was only camp and preseason, though, with the added difficulty of adapting to a new scheme and new teammates. It is still possible that Fields can surprise us all by coming out and looking like a revamped quarterback once the regular season begins.

If he looks like the same guy, though, chances are his numbers will be much worse than the ones he rode to .500+ football over his last full season’s worth of starts.

In that case, the Jets could still go above .500 in spite of Fields, riding the strength of their defense and special teams. Fields would be a liability, an obstacle that must be worked around.

That’s not what Fields’ last 17 starts painted the picture of. He looked like a starting quarterback who was legitimately slightly above-average – not a liability.

The underlying metrics reveal the harsh reality that he was, in fact, a liability, likely explaining why Chicago dumped him and why Pittsburgh benched him.

With the same version of Fields that we’ve become accustomed to, the Jets would have to win in spite of him to push for the playoffs. He will be a 6-to-7-win type of quarterback who would require excellent support to be dragged above .500.

If he can take a leap, though, Fields is not too far off from being a .500+ quarterback. He was a .500+ quarterback over his last full season, after all. Our confidence in him has declined in the latter portion of this article because we found evidence that suggests he is due for regression. So, his key is to fight that regression off.

He can do that by reducing his turnover-worthy throws and fumbles to the point where he is luck-proof – a point where his turnovers would still be low even with some misfortune.

On top of that, Fields needs to cut his sacks down. Outside of those, Fields is pretty average at keeping the ball moving. Over his last 17 starts, he averaged 7.0 yards per pass attempt (just below the 7.1 league average) and 5.0 yards per rush attempt on high volume. But when you toss in his 2.9 sacks per game for -20.0 yards, he does not look as efficient. Those are drive-killing plays.

Cut down the dangerous plays and the sacks, and Fields will give himself pretty good odds of continuing to be the legitimate 9-8 quarterback he appeared to be over his last 17 starts.

Keep playing the same way, and that 9-8 quarterback will quickly turn into a 6-11 one (or worse).