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- Dec 15, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) sets to pass in the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Justin Herbert 2025 NFL Redraft Outlook

Originally posted on Total Apex Fantasy Sports
By Shane Foley | Last updated Jul 12, 2025 6:50 AM ET

In the five years that he’s been in the league, Justin Herbert has gotten more praise than any quarterback outside the ones with playoff success. The Oregon has tons of great qualities for a passer, with good decision making and an absolute cannon of an arm. Despite being great at the position, he usually ends up with a low ADP come time for fantasy football. Is he worth a shot at QB1, or is he accurately rated?

Justin Herbert 2024 Stats and Fantasy Production

Herbert ended up with a strong 2024 performance, but his numbers don’t look as shocking. He’s missing those huge games with 400+ yards and multiple touchdowns that Joe Burrow and Josh Allen earned. Even without those jawdropping stats, though, Herbert had a very high floor. Only in two games in 2024 did Herbert score less than 10 fantasy points.

A perfect way to illustrate his performance is by looking at his touchdown to interception ratio. He threw 25 touchdowns to only three interceptions. One way to look at that is he clearly took care of the football, only giving it up three times. On the other hand, 13 quarterbacks threw for more than 25 touchdowns in the 2024 season, so while he doesn’t have a low floor, Herbert doesn’t have the highest ceiling either.

The same can be said about his yardage: he only threw over 300 yards twice last season, but he threw at least 200 yards in all but six of his games. Herbert deserves tons of praise for finishing the year with a 101.7 QB rating, but statistically, his numbers don’t look as impressive.

Justin Herbert 2025 Fantasy Outlook

Nov 25, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws against the Baltimore Ravens during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Justin Herbert may be the perfect example of someone who is great for his team, but not for fantasy. There’s no doubt that he is going to be incredibly accurate in 2025, and he’s going to take care of the football. It’s hard to project him having better numbers than last year, simply because of the team he is on. Jim Harbaugh wants to make running the football a priority, and drafting Omarion Hampton only means that they’re going to keep the ball on the ground much more.

Taking all of these into account, Justin Herbert really shouldn’t be a WR1 in fantasy this year. In small leagues, it shouldn’t be hard to avoid Herbert when guys like Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray will be available in later rounds. Looking at leagues where there are 12 or more participants, though, Herbert looks like a much more lucrative option.

His ADP right now is 15 among quarterbacks, but he’s being drafted ahead of players like C.J. Stroud, Drake Maye, and Jordan Love, all of whom might have more upside. Any fantasy drafters who are big on Herbert might want to wait until the late rounds, and if Herbert is still on the board, he can be a great WR2 who can be plugged in to start in strong matchups

This article first appeared on Total Apex Fantasy Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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