Year after year it seems like Justin Jefferson reaches the top of wide receiver production. In the five seasons that he’s been in the league, he’s either finished WR1 (like in 2022) or close to there.
That being said, the former LSU Tiger will have to deal with a lot of change in Minnesota. They’re hoping to get a full year out of quarterback J.J. McCarthy, so will that affect Jefferson’s numbers?
Jefferson probably doesn’t receive enough credit for adapting to a new system last year and still performing well. He had Sam Darnold throwing him the football, a quarterback almost nobody had faith in.
Nevertheless, the Darnold to Jefferson connection was real, and it led to five games where Jefferson had over 100 yards. The only category where Jefferson was slightly lacking in was touchdowns; he had only ten on the season, and there was a six-game stretch where he didn’t reach the endzone at all.
In terms of fantasy, Jefferson averaged 18 points per week, which is as good as any fantasy player could ask for. There were a few duds in the season for Jefferson, like Week 12 against Chicago where he only had 4.7 points. Those were only occasionally, though.
What’s most impressive about his season was that he was still scoring points through that six-game stretch without a touchdown. He had 19.6 points against the Rams and 21.5 points against the Colts without entering the endzone.
When it comes to Justin Jefferson, the question is not whether or not he’s a first-round pick but where in the first round-to take him. Jefferson is a top-three wide receiver; that isn’t up for debate.
Players simply need to evaluate where they rank Jefferson amongst the top receivers as well as the top running backs in the league. Although Jefferson is a phenomenal talent, he probably shouldn’t go number one overall since Ja’Marr Chase is thought to have a better year.
There are some experts out there who think Jefferson isn’t worth a first-round pick because J.J. McCarthy is throwing the football, and Jefferson will have to get used to his new quarterback.
Here’s the thing though; they said the same thing when Sam Darnold was quarterback, as well as Joshua Dobbs and, to some extent, Kirk Cousins. Jefferson has proved throughout his career that he is getting his catches and yards regardless of who is behind center.
Therefore, Jefferson should be projected to finish in the top five or WR1s. Maybe he shouldn’t be taken before Chase or Saquon Barkley, but anywhere after the third pick is a great place to take Jefferson.
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