Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers predictions, odds, preview: NFL picks Week 4

Spread

We're backing the Chargers, but not over the full game. We'll put our bet on Los Angeles to cover the first-half spread.

Moneyline

We're not betting the moneyline in this game.

Over/Under

We have no pick for this game total.

Pick: Chargers 1H +4.5 (-120)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Week 4 Preview

By Matt Trebby

The Chiefs are 3-0, but all three wins were by one score and they haven't been too convincing so far this season. The defense held strong last week in Atlanta, holding Kirk Cousins to just 17 points and coming up big late in the game.

This week, Kansas City faces a familiar quarterback in a new system. The Chiefs are used to facing Justin Herbert, but this won't be the same kind of offense they're used to preparing for.

For the Chargers, Herbert appears likely to play through an ankle sprain. Expect Los Angeles' attack to remain run-heavy, especially here as it tries to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field.

By Alex Kolodziej

Is this a perfect spot to fade the Chiefs?

Sunday’s Week 4 game may be tough to get up for after the red carpet’s been rolled out in each of the first three weeks. Kansas City’s three games have all been get-up spots, from the season opener, to the home game vs. Joe Burrow, then Sunday Night Football. Now, the Chiefs are laying a bunch of chalk on the road to a team they’re expected to beat.

The best way to fade the Chiefs and bet the Chargers, in my opinion, is the first half. The Bolts probably don’t have enough ammo over four quarters to out-duel Mahomes without key players, but I’d back Jim Harbaugh and L.A. to cover the first two.

Mahomes is just 3-10 against the spread in the first half over his last 13 starts, with only Bryce Young posting a worse record over that span.

What also helps this handicap is PRO insights favoring a low-scoring game, which in turn helps a big underdog catching points. Our projections make the total of 40 closer to 38.1, and sharp money’s flooding the under, too.

It’s a sleepy spot for Kansas City — at least perhaps to start.

Roll with the Chargers to cover the first half spread.

Pick: Chargers 1H +4.5 (-120)

Betting Trends

• 63% of bets and 52% of the money are on the Chiefs to cover the spread.
• 67% of bets and 52% of the money are on the over.
• 94% of bets and 78% of the money on the moneyline are on the Chiefs.

How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming

Chiefs vs. Chargers is scheduled for a 4:25 p.m. ET start time, live from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., on Sunday, Sept. 29. The game is broadcasted live by CBS and is streaming on Paramount+ and YouTube TV.

About the Author

Action Network is a team of seasoned sports betting experts specializing in a broad range of sports, from the NFL and NBA to less mainstream options like cricket and darts. Their staff includes well-known analysts like Sean Koerner and Stuckey, recognized for their accurate predictions and deep sports knowledge. The team is dedicated to delivering expert analysis and daily best bets, ensuring bettors are well-informed across all major sports.

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